Mammoth Dreams, the Story of Dave McCoy

Mammoth Dreams, the Story of Dave McCoy – trailer on Vimeo on Vimeo

Explosive Breach of Condit Dam

Explosive Breach of Condit Dam on Vimeo on Vimeo

Net Cap Pecking Order

There is a new ‘net market cap pecking order:


via RC

Twitter Digest: 2011-11-04

  • Poll: What percentage will Groupon IPO open up tomorrow? via @polldaddy #
  • Just posted a quick Groupon IPO poll for tomorrow. Not to bias things overly, but I'm on record with 50% float-driven pop possible. #
  • How many polls will there be about inane Groupon subjects in next 24 hours? #
  • What's the difference, if anything, between Jawbone's new Up thingie and a Fitbit? #
  • I love how people feel compelled to explain to me how IPOs work. #
  • Bloomberg reporting that Greece referendum idea has been scrapped. Apparently they're moving it to PollDaddy. #
  • In other news, that woman beside you in bed is Suzanne Pleshette. RT @BloombergTV: Papandreou: Would never put Euro as referendum question #
  • McKinsey: Another oil shock ahead – #
  • We should be much more blasé about oil price shocks. Clearly we have insulated our economy from such things. #
  • Il Pleut. Greece has poured vinegar on the G20's frites. #
  • Rethinking Revolutionary User Interfaces – #
  • If the over-airy Google Reader ui is driving you mad, an effective tweak – #
  • NYT: The High-Tech Home Office – #
  • Must be DM fail day today. Seen some doozies. Thanks all for the entertainment. #
  • Amusing that some venture firms still discovering that mixed IT/clean tech/bio investing doesn't work. Unrelated: Apples still fall down. #
  • Max Hastings' latest, "Inferno", a one-volume WWII history, is a career capstone. Rich, moving & human. #
  • Apparently some company called "Group-On" is going public tomorrow. Doing a segment on Bloomberg TV at 3pm pst to find out more. #
  • Good piece on Bloomberg right now about the auteur theory of venture capital. If I could web link to it, I would. #
  • Video: Brazilian police ram moving plane to stop drug smugglers. /via @DrVes #
  • Today in 1999-ishness: Deepak Chopra Brings Well-Being To Start-Up AHALife – #
  • BBC's In Our Time on the origins, science and mythology of the moon. #
  • Hugely amusing that people treat IPO pricing as some sort of science. People, it's a marketing exercise. #
  • This entire Groupon thingie is a reminder of how absurd the IPO process is. All regulatory & Wall Street theater. #
  • Cool fin'l app. RT @slaven: @pkedrosky Just an update, launched today, hit #1 in finance on both Canada and US side #
  • I'm intro-ing VC legend Don Valentine next week at event in Palm Desert. Honored to do so. #
  • Hmm. RT @BloombergNews: 40 Republicans back revenue hike to cut deficit | #
  • I see a new ornithological Steadicam ahead – #
  • On the idiosyncratic causes of suboptimal free throw shooting, or, why physicists can't score – #
  • On the idiosyncratic causes of suboptimal free throw shooting, or, why physicists can't score – #
  • What was the last tech IPO to (at least) double offering size on eve of offering? Anyone? #
  • .@LongShortTrader Sadly, I don't have the answer. Night before doubling. Trying to find out. #
  • Here is one. RT @40z: @pkedrosky Looks like Solazyme did it in May, but it was algae #
  • I won't link to it, because that would be falling for it, but @hblodget is apparently wangling for a Groupon linkbait award tonight. #
  • Ignore my earlier tweet about doubling IPO offering size. Temporarily went mad. #
  • Scoring Strategies for the Underdog: A general, quantitative method for determining optimal sports strategies #
  • Paul Volcker: Financial Reform — Unfinished Business #

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Scoring Strategies for the Underdog

Fun new paper on scoring strategies for underdogs in sports:

Scoring Strategies for the Underdog: A general, quantitative method for determining optimal sports strategies

When facing a heavily-favored opponent, an underdog must be willing to assume greater-than-average risk. In statistical language, one would say that an underdog must be willing to adopt a strategy whose outcome has a larger-than-average variance. The difficult question is how much risk a team should be willing to accept. This is equivalent to asking how much the team should be willing to sacrifice from its mean score in order to increase the scores variance. In this paper a general, analytical method is developed for addressing this question quantitatively. Under the assumption that every play in a game is statistically independent, both the mean and the variance of a teams offensive output can be described using the binomial distribution. This description allows for direct calculations of the winning probability when a particular strategy is employed, and therefore allows one to calculate optimal offensive strategies. This paper develops this method for calculating optimal strategies exactly and then presents a simple heuristic for determining whether a given strategy should be adopted. A number of interesting and counterintuitive examples are then explored, including the merits of stalling for time, the run/pass/Hail Mary choice in American football, and the correct use of Hack-a-Shaq.

via [1111.0693] Scoring Strategies for the Underdog: A general, quantitative method for determining optimal sports strategies.

Follow the Bouncing Mobile Devs

The latest Q3 IDC/Appcelerator survey of developer interest in various mobile operating systems. I used last year’s version of this data a year ago, in part, when I began my RIMM short.

Follow the bouncing devs to know which mobile platforms are likely to do well.


Twitter Digest: 2011-11-03

  • Am entertained by the debacle at Sony today: halving TV sales estimates, troubles in components, etc. Huge confirmatory bias fodder. #
  • Full disclosure: Still cheerfully short Sony, of course. #
  • Updata: With me slowly covering RIMM, my two largest tech shorts are now MSFT and SNE. No glory in former — yet. #
  • "Everyone has opinions. We have convictions." Ironic magazine ad from newly bust MF Global /via @wsj #
  • Speaking of WSJ, I like how it's getting away from whole distraction of running news on front page. #
  • Am on a zero travel week. It always feel like being at a resort on holidays. #
  • Having been involved with its propagation early on, can I now say I wish people would shut up already about "big data". I am so tired of it. #
  • What's the opposite of "big data"? Little anecdote. I'm officially back in favor of that. #
  • RT @kathrynschulz Big Data to Little Anecdote = frying pan to fire. How about "modest hypothesis" (or even "small hunch") instead? #
  • Celebrity defined down RT @brianstorms: Surprise visit from @pkedrosky at @Nettle's office! Our first celebrity! :-) #
  • Notice telltale hats, khaki shorts, upturned collars & stroller: Yes, a sighting of homo touristicus, La Jolla variant #
  • Only time I watch hour of fincl TV is when having my teeth cleaned, which is often on Fed days. Now associate @SullyCNBC with tooth pain. #
  • I'm in Portugal week after next. Don't say I didn't warn you. #
  • Because It's Steep: Why people run Mt Washington – /via @kathrynschulz #
  • Watching Ben Bernanke press conferences is much better on nitrous oxide. All the beard, none of the content. #
  • First bears, and now this: Swimming jellyfish may influence global climate – #
  • Roy Batty would have loved this: Clearance of p16Ink4a-positive senescent cells delays ageing-associated disorders – #
  • Energy Economics: What Will Turn Us On in 2030? #
  • Ah, ash falling from the sky and the smell of burning chaparral. It must be Santa Ana season in San Diego. #
  • I get the distinct sense that in an alternative dimension I was/am/will be a pyromaniac. I love the smell of wildfires #
  • Argued to a friend today that Google today increasingly reminds me of Microsoft circa 1999. Such clumsiness after such a run. #
  • New paper: "Price-quakes" in global stock exchanges – #
  • Got to play "guess the reporter's real agenda" on a reporter call today. I hate doing that, but refuse to be sandbagged. #
  • U.S. is first choice of wealthy Chinese emigrants, but Canada right behind which is huge per capita skew – #
  • .@AGORACOM Yeah, made that point in a blog post. China funneling is larger yet when you consider immigration is Vancouver/Toronto only. #
  • Pew: Graphic of historical long-term US unemployment #
  • Only Robert Reich can take data I agree with and an argument I agree with and make me disagree. That's a skill. #
  • Favorite email subject line du jour: "Paul Kedrosky is Half Executed". #

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Authors@Google: Steven Pinker

Authors@Google: Steven Pinker – YouTube.

Groupon Polls and Meta-Polls

Groupon poll:

And a meta-poll:

Online Polls at GoPollGo

Long-Term US Unemployment

From a new Pew study, a graph of historical US long-term unemployment.

Lt unemployment