Statistics
Quantifiable Edges has an interesting little statistic on 52 week lows.
Basically, 1/3 of all the stocks on the NYSE hit a 52 week low yesterday. The last time this has happened was in 1990.
This has only happened a few times since 1971 (5) and in all 5 instances the market was higher 4 days later and 20 days later. Not enough data to make any reasonable conclusion. Whats interesting is that if you go one further year back, 1970, there's three more occurrences and they were all negative 4 days later. Again, not interesting (too few examples) but its
A) another example of the extreme level this market has taken a beating, even when compared with 2000-2002 (which is somewhat striking if you think about what was going on then: Internet bust, enron/wcom, 911, recession, etc).
B) another example where people are comparing this year to the 70s. I disagree with this. I don't think we are in stagflation. I'm more worried about eventual serious deflation a la what "Helicopter Ben" was worried about in 2002. But I'm hoping at least over the next 4 days (and over the next decade), that 2008 isn't the new 1970 but the new 1990.
-James Altucher
This week's horrible events in India, with a one-day rainfall of as much as 37 inches, plus more than 600 dead, is dreadful & dispiriting news. And not to in any way diminish its awfulness, it did get me thinking...
The folks at Feedburner announced an "awareness" API yesterday, with which there are plenty of interesting things you can do. As a general note, it is worthwhile thinking about why people want others to know a little about their subscriber...
The following is a snippet from the U.S. Census today:"The [U.S.'s] foreign-born population numbered 34.2 million in 2004, accounting for 12 percent of the total U.S. population, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released today."Hmmm .... Am I the only one...
A few 'graphs from my weekend National Post column:In the last six months, 85,619 cell phones were left behind in Chicago taxis, according to a recent survey. The situation is little better in London, with passengers having lost more than...
Probabilities are a wonderful business tool, but there are alternatively under-used or mis-used. Today, however, I have a quiz question for folks, a probability question that entertained me this morning. Someone recently gamed the Missouri lottery. It is a Pick-3...
A headline in this morning's Statistics Canada's daily review of Canadian economic numbers was this: "Crushing statistics". That understandably got my attention right away. Far, however, from being about some fringe anti-math protest group that wants to have all statistics...
One of the more common errors made by would-be statisticians is assuming two events are independent, when they are not. For example, while two flips of a coin are independent (one "head" doesn't influence the likelihood of another head coming...
According to the current Advertising Age, things were busy, if nervous, at this week's National Association of Television Program Executives (NATPE -- pronounced to (sort of) rhyme with "nasty") conference in Las Vegas. TV execs can't figure out where the...
My National Post column today was on bumpf and posturing at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos.Update: Ah, if only I had seen this story before I had written the above column. Apparently the WEF anticipated my criticisms...
Microsoft's quarterly financial results tonight seemingly have many investors in a tizzy. It has nothing to do with the higher-than-expected equity compensation costs, however. Those are shuffling of costs from one period to another, and it isn't all that important...
Quirky piece in the Independent about Oracle CEO Larry Ellison's recent marriage to romance novelist Melanie Craft. It is requisitely snide in that U.K. way, so you get bon mots like the following: "At 34, Ms Craft is 25 years...
While Moneyball is not writer Michael Lewis's best book (that honor goes to Liar's Poker, followed closely by the underappreciated Trail Fever), it certainly has been the Lewis book that has stimulated the most discussion. The gist: baseball manager Billy...
The entire research idea is irresistibly silly, so I'm not going to bother trying to resist it: Some U.K. students from the University of Plymouth set up an experiment to test the old saw that with enough monkeys and typewriters...
