Public economics

Tea, the Czar and Polonium 210

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Moral Hazard....

Once again, Tom Vanderwell here with some thoughts about moral hazard....Barry Ritholz at The Big Picture had these two comics that brought to the forefront again the issue of moral hazard.   Check out the comics and then we'll talk "on...

The U.S. Dollar Tipping Point

Bloomberg columnist John Berry is the dean of currency commentators, so when he has something strong to say, people notice (whether they agree or disagree). Berry has been downbeat about the U.S. dollar for some time, but in his current column...

Gasoline Demand in Freefall

Hey, some of economics actually does work in the real world: People apparently do respond to price incentives … By Monday, oil and gasoline futures prices had given up all of the gain they'd experienced since Katrina. Today we learned...

Fortune's Misguided Critique of Technology Commercialization

What is the role of unversities in technology commercialization? Some starry-eyed sorts persist in believing that universities should “return to” tossing things over the transom, no economic intererest inherent or implied. That, in essence, is the naive thrust of a...

The Oil Supply Bubble

While most chatter in the popular press is about the prospects for a "super-spike" in oil prices, count on the Economist for a contrarian view:Julian West of CERA, an energy consultancy, has compiled a list of all of the oil...

FCC Chair Powell to Step Down

According to this morning's WSJ, controversial FCC Chair Michael Powell is going to surprise folks by stepping down today:Federal Communications Commission Chairman Michael Powell plans to resign today, ending what's often been a controversial tenure as he tried to push...

The End of the World as We Know It ...

Jared "Guns, Germs, and Steel" Diamond has an essay/editorial in today's NY Times. While it is essentially a precis of his new book ("Collapse: How Societies Choose or Fail to Succeed"), the thoughts are mind-expanding:Maya Native Americans of the Yucatan...

Did 1980s Japanese Investors Know They Were in a Real Estate Bubble?

The Bank of International Settlements has a neat paper out looking at the question of whether Japanese real estate investors knew they were in a bubble in the 1980s. Some might say, How could they not have known? After all,...

Stephen Roach: The End is Nigh (Again)

There is old saying in the forecasting business that if you have to predict, predict often. Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach apparently lives by a strange variant of that adage, one wherein you repeatedly predict the same thing, even if it...

What Would We Do Without China?

From the front of today's Financial Times:...

The Death of Distance

To borrow the title of Frances Cairncross's estimable book, the death of distance is a fact. As the Economist points out in its current issue, falling transport costs have been a fact over the decades, and that has lead to...

I Have Seen the Oil Problem and it is Us

I somehow missed MIT economist Morris Adelman's fun paper in Regulation this Spring, but I spotted it recently on SSRN. To make a well-done paper undeservedly shorter, he argues provocatively that there is no oil crisis and has never been...

The U.S. Interstate Highway System & the Economy

In its current issue Fortune magazine argues rightly that the interstate highway system was one of the primary forces that helped create the modern U.S. economy. The magazine has an interesting photo essay that it uses in making the case....

The Race to the Edges

In yesterday's NY Times Virginia Postrel highlighted a recent game-theory economics paper that looked into why Republicans and Democrats were so far apart on religious issues, rather than racing to the middle as political theory predicts. In essence, the paper...

Britney, the Chili Peppers, & the Economics of Music Downloading

There is an interesting new study on the economics effects of music downloading out from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Here is the summary:Recording industry revenue has fallen sharply in the last three years, and some -- but...

Profile of Thomas "What's the Matter With Kansas?" Frank

Tom Frank was never destined to be a normal intellectual. Despite having a Ph.D. in cultural history from the University of Chicago, his one attempt at a university faculty job apparently ended in a sort of Barbara Walters moment having...

Innovation and its Discontents

Josh Lerner's new book "Innovation and its Discontents" on the problems with patent policy is very good. I've just finished it, and it is a thoughtful look at a sometime MEGO subject, one remarkably free of both cant and of...

The Trouble with Software as a Service (Part I)

How many technology-related monthly bills are you paying? Cell phone, Tivo, XM radio, etc. etc. For many people this is becoming not insignificant. A generation ago people made three monthly payments -- mortages, utilities, and newspapers -- and now the...

Will the Last Techie Turn off the Lights?

The WSJ highlights some interesting findings from a recent Sphere Institute report:More than half of the people working at technology companies in California in early 2000 had left the technology field or the state by the end of 2003, and...

Bias in Electronic Markets, & the Favorite-Longshot Bias

I am a fan of electronic markets. I find that I turn to them more and more, whether the subject is the likelihood of an FOMC rate increase in November, or where the S&P 500 will end the year, or...

Oil @ 50

Remarkable stuff: Even the inflation-adjusted comparison is getting more impressive. While we aren't quite at the 1981 peak, we aren't that far off any more either:...

NatPost Column: Oracle Antitrust Decision

The first few paras from my column in tomorrow's National Post on the the Oracle antitrust decision:Game on! A U.S. District Court has ruled against the U.S. Department of Justice in its antitrust case against Oracle. The decision will set...

Floppy Disks and Cargo Cults

Dell and Gateway have apparently stopped including floppy drives in new computers. So here is the question: What took so long? You can't store diddly in 1.44MB, so that's not the pitch, and it hasn't been for some time. It strikes...

RiteAid, Queuing Theory, and the Law of the Slowest Line

Why don't more stores have a single line that feeds all the registers? Banks do it, airlines do it, and Barnes & Noble does it, but other stores seem torn. As this nicely-done WashPost piece points out, even when such...

Patently Obvious Reading & Garage Door Openers

I haven't mentioned it before, but the Patently Obvious blog on patent law is far more fun than it deserves to be considering the dry subject matter. (And did I mention the great pictures?) Today's topic: the DMCA and the legality...

Richard Posner Guest Blogs for Lessig

Lawrence Lessig has Richard Posner guest-blogging for him. Remarkable must-read stuff that already ranges from fair use in car theft to the merits of the Matrix films....

Celebrity Auctions and the Prospects for the U.S. Economy

Bloomberg columnist Caroline Baum has a typically cheeky piece scoring a recent celebrity auction's implications for the U.S. economy (and for George Bush's re-election prospects). An excerpt:During the late 1990s stock-market bubble, companies continued to report soaring quarterly profits even...

Immigrant Share of U.S. Labor Force

Perhaps I have been away from the data for too long, but the following chart from a recent IMF report was a surprise to me:Of the OECD countries shown, the U.S. had the largest change in the percentage of the...

How Google Wrong-Foots Regulators

Good Tom Hazlett column in the FT on how Google's decision to launch Gmail with 1GB of storage wrong-foots regulators: "By offering 2 GB for the price of 100 MB, the competitive rivalry now on display highlights the implausibility of...

Krugman, Lewis, & Joy on Money & Markets

Three provocative pieces in this weekend's money-oriented edition of the N.Y. Times magazine:Paul Krugman argues Alan Greenspan's legacy will be "aid & comfort" to a fiscally irresponsible administration Michael Lewis on the "joys" of investing in socially responsible companies Bill...

Offshoring to Canada

A new A.T. Kearney study is out ranking countries as destinations for offshoring. Here are the top 12 overall:1. India2. China3. Malaysia4. Czech Republic5. Singapore6. Philippines7. Brazil8. Canada9. Chile10. Poland11. Hungary12. New ZealandInterestingly, there is only one G8 country in...

Canada: Tastes Great, More Taxing

A Federal election has been called in Canada, and magnificently loopy stuff is being generated in prodigious quantities. Here is a current favorite:CHARLOTTETOWN, Prince Edward Island (Reuters) - Casting aside a record built up as a tax-cutter, Prime Minister Paul Martin...

Political Economics & T.J. Rodgers

Cypess Semiconductor CEO T. J. Rodgers is unique among Silicon Valley CEOs in that a) he is a Republican, and b) he doesn't hide his political views. Read this CNet interview for an entertaining example....

The Laffer Curve Works, Really?

From today's WSJ and an article on the U.S. policy of taxing overseas profits of U.S. firms:The U.S. system for taxing overseas profits of American companies is so riddled with loopholes and credits that the government would collect $6 billion...

Greenspan: "Apres moi, le deluge"

From Paul Kasriel's excellent Northern Trust piece today on the U.S. Federal Reserve being checkmated right now by both rising real estate and rising production prices:If the Fed hikes interest rates now to preempt inflation of goods and services prices, it...

The Minimum Wage is Zero

Given the current debate about raising the minimum wage, it's worth considering the wage's implications. After all, as Thomas Sowell is fond of saying, whatever the statutory minimum wage, the real minimum wage will always be zero. Employers, in other...

Monster's New Help-Wanted Index, Part II

Monster's help-wanted numbers are now out, and here is a quick summary of how its help-wanted index compares to a similar long-standing measure from the Conference Board:...

What Has Gotten into Lou Dobbs?

Apparently Lou Dobbs has crossed some sort of virtual Rubicon on this offshoring issue, and he can't stop himself any more. The Dobbs Watch (tm) reached the pages of the Wall Street Journal this morning, with it highlighting the incongruity...

Dan Gillmor & Wal-mart's Economics

Let me get this straight. According to San Jose Mercury-News columnist Dan Gillmor, Wal-mart is an evil company. But here are just some of the accolades he drive-by proffers the retailer: It offers great variety at low prices It brought...

External Economies, Plagiarism Detection, & the Spleen

What rights do students have with respect to the commercial reuse of their class assignments? That question, in part, has come up in Canada in the context of Turnitin.com, an online plagiarism detection tool. Turnitin relies partly on searching the...

McKinsey's Offshoring Numbers

The following paragraph from a recent McKinsey study in offshoring seems to light people's fires on the subject more than anything I know. Cite it at your peril -- I mentioned it in a recent column and I'm getting positively...

Good versus Bad Free Trade

A Wall Street Journal story this morning gently but firmly makes the point that many erstwhile free trade supporters are hypocritical. They were fans of free trade so long as it meant blue-collar jobs going overseas, and cheap products coming...

Dude, Where's My Demographic?

According to the current Advertising Age, things were busy, if nervous, at this week's National Association of Television Program Executives (NATPE -- pronounced to (sort of) rhyme with "nasty") conference in Las Vegas. TV execs can't figure out where the...

On Davos, Bumpf, and Posturing

My National Post column today was on bumpf and posturing at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos.Update: Ah, if only I had seen this story before I had written the above column. Apparently the WEF anticipated my criticisms...

Microsoft's Annuity Problem

Microsoft's quarterly financial results tonight seemingly have many investors in a tizzy. It has nothing to do with the higher-than-expected equity compensation costs, however. Those are shuffling of costs from one period to another, and it isn't all that important...

Larry Ellison's Nuptuals

Quirky piece in the Independent about Oracle CEO Larry Ellison's recent marriage to romance novelist Melanie Craft. It is requisitely snide in that U.K. way, so you get bon mots like the following: "At 34, Ms Craft is 25 years...

Repealing the Byrd Amendment

A few paragraphs from my weekend National Post column on the escalating tussle over the Byrd Amendment: The ongoing trade spat over the so-called Byrd Amendment is an exercise in deep cynicism on all sides. No matter what resolution is...

NPR: Doomed by Success?

What happens to an organization's fund-raising when it raises "too much" money? National Public Radio has that problem after Joan Kroc, wife of McDonald's founder Ray Kroc, gave the radio organization a little more than $200-million last year as part...

Tipping points, Tourism and the U.S.S. Midway

Will yesteryday's permanent docking of the U.S.S. Midway aircraft carrier on the San Diego waterfront be the tourism bonanza its promoters hope? Certainly, downtown San Diego is in the middle of a massive rebuilding boom, with everything from condo complexes,...

IMF Paper on Dollar Troubles

There was an alternately harrowing and fascinating IMF paper released today on the U.S. economy, deficits, and the outlook for the dollar. Here is a long-ish snippet: ... the emergence of large fiscal deficits and signs that they will be...

Patents & University Entrepreneurship

Universities are becoming hot-beds of patenting. The number of patent filings is on the rise at U.S. universities, outpacing the growth in university research spending. According to AUTM data, research spending is up 30% at U.S. universities in the last...

Microsoft & its FAT Problems

The news that Microsoft wants money for its file formats being used by flash memory makers has the usual Everything-But-My-Stuff-Should-be-Free crew in a tizzy. They're wrong and being typically silly, of course: Microsoft has a $250K cap per licensee ---...

Loss Leaders and Skipping Stones

All businesses require loss leaders. Men's suits, consumer electronics, software, and yes, academic journals -- they all need 'em. Case in point, Nature's current issue and an article therein about the best way to skip stones. While Nature does periodically...

No Shrinking from Shrimp Wars

All those shrimp you've been eating lately? Dumped. Not literally, of course, but figuratively, at least according to the Southern Shrimp Alliance. On Wednesday of this past week it filed a request with the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S....

Economist vs. Economist: Dissecting the Roaring 90's

What caused the economic boom of the 1990s? Was it chance, conscious policy, or some combination of both? And when it ended, was it because of policy errors, or was it just that it the U.S. economy's run of good...

TOEFL, technology, and trade

Some reports are saying that Chinese TOEFL-takers (the Test of English as a Foreign Language) have declined precipitously in recent years. According to the article, at peak, in 1999, 100,000 Chinese students a year took the test, most of whom...

The essence of political economics

From Marginal Revolution: Political writers have established it as a maxim, that, in contriving any system of government, and fixing the several checks and controls of the constitution, every man ought to be supposed a knave, and to have no...

Will faux-futures markets fail?

New Yorker writer James Surowiecki asks the right question concerning futures markets in public events and the like. While such markets are oft-criticized for being illiquid and being dens for (largely nonexistent) abritrageurs, Surowiecki points out that doesn't invalidate the...

Minimax, and the economics of "Survivor"

The hit television show Survivor finished last night as improbably as it was through its recent "Pearl Island" run. Lill, a Boy Scout troop leader, seemingly gave away a million dollars. Here is what happened: Lill could select who her...

The Unintended Consequences of Affirmative Action

Facinating new Harvard Press book out next month arguing that discrimination plays little part in reducing the number of minority professors working in universities. Instead, it is affirmative action itself that it is at the root of the problem: Many...

Comparative advantage in music

From an interview with Gene and Paul of Kiss on their sharing the stage with Joe and Steve of Aerosmith: "No one does what [Aerosmith does] better. And we tend to think that there's nobody that does what we do...

NatPost column on media ownership

Here is my June 3rd, National Post column: Media ownership makes for strange bedfellows. Ted Turner, Consumers Union, columnist William Safire, and Lawrence Lessig of Stanford have all tumbled into bed opposing proposed changes in media regulation that would allow...

"Average" tax cut is a meaningless notion

It is an old and somewhat silly saying, but it applies: When your head is in the oven and your feet are in the fridge, on average you feel okay. Similarly, the Bush Administration's uses the word "average" to say...

Proposed visa changes: Narrow benefits, widespread costs

I am entirely sympathetic to the plight of technology workers losing theirs jobs. Whether because of outsourcing, or because of a lousy economy, the result is no picnic. Nevertheless, I generally think the technology business is facing the same sort...

Small business, Mike Kinsley, and G.W. Bush

Ordinarily columnist Michael Kinsley uses scrupulously clean logic. Something, however, about George W. Bush periodically makes Kinsley blow a fuse and start spouting non sequiturs and illogic. Case in point, this Slate column about Bush's infatuation with small business. In essence,...

The changing economics of spam

An interesting Wall Street Journal story today on the "Buffalo Spammer", a fellow who was rotating through multiple Earthlink accounts sending millions of spam messages. Apparently the WSJ story was very well-timed: he was hit with $14mm in fines late today. That is,...