S&P 500 Forecasts vs Results

Good graphic from JP Morgan’s Cembalest’s latest report, showing the tenuous relationship between consensus S&P 500 forecasts ex ante, and subsequent ex post S&P results. Huge prize to anyone who can come up with one. A relationship, that is. [-]

Sp500 ante post


  1. I don't like making predictions but when forced I try to "swing for the fences" – none of this 10-20% change from the previous year pablum. I'm very often very wrong but at least people wake up.

  2. unfavorable odds says:

    I find it amazing that, even though there were numerous instances where the returns were less than -10%, in the 60-year history of this data, there was NEVER a forecast of a decline of that magnitude.

  3. The relationship is along the lines of the a blind squirrel and a stopped clock.