Stuff ‘n’ Things

Just back from a week in Europe. Totally exhausted still. Some catch-up.

  • Real Men Don’t Miss a Season (Source)
  • This Season’s Snowiest Resorts (Source)
  • The Wirecutter | A List of the Best Gadgets (Source)
  • Euro fix a con trick for the desperate (Source)

For those of you interested in other random things financial, a few of my current positions, whether directly or via options:

  • Longs: UUP, GLD, PCY,  RWX

I’m generally of the view that, assuming the Euro wheels don’t come off first, we get a screamer of a bounce higher sometime soon, and then trade off into Q1 2012, by which time we revisit, say, 800-900 on the S&P as the world comes unglued against $0.80 in earnings on the S&P. Sometime in 2012, likely early, we will get the best prices of the current cycle for equities, and then we will tumble cheerfully deeper into depression as austerity bites hard here and in Europe.

Thematically, I’m still big on the idea that a host of consumer electronics companies being clobbered, mostly while people are ignoring them for some bizarre reason. So I remain in my year-long short in RIMM (even if worried that activists are going to mess me up), SNE, NOK, etc. I’m also short EEM in a paired trade against PCY, largely as a crash trade where emerging sovereign debt outperforms emerging equities. I’m also short a host of U.S. sector ETFs as I have been since June-ish, a trade that started terribly and has done much better ever since.  On the long side, the dollar is another crash trade, which I have done via options in a sort of bull strangle, and I’m also long real estate via RWX, mostly because I like the idea that the second derivative is tapering and people hate it more than I do.

Looking forward slightly, I imagine that we will see that bounce very shortly, and it could be very strong indeed, causing me to hedge these holdings fairly dramatically, and even close a few out.

[Update] Well, that was fast. Apparently we are bouncing right now. Who knew I would call the bounce so closely? Monkeys, typewriters, etc.