Business Jet Forecasts

On a scale of -10 to +10, how wrong do you think this private jet forecast is likely to be over the next decade?

Honeywell chart 0

More reading.

 

 

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Comments

  1. James Cameron says:

    > how wrong

    Not sure I understand your scale but . . . very. Those dips before 2010 reflect the economy, so what follows after 2010 isn't at all believable, especially if Europe blows, we tank, or China slides. And the first two don't seem like very low probability events.

    • Paul Kedrosky says:

      Well, my scale is more rhetorical than rigorous, but let's say +50% vs-50% as the poles.

  2. Estelle says:

    What is the source of that chart you show

    • Paul Kedrosky says:

      Honeywell via AINonline, here -http://www.ainonline.com/sites/ainonline.com/files/uploads/honeywell-chart_0.jpg

  3. QJH says:

    If it serves as any indication, Gulfstream has about 100 firm orders on it's upcoming $65M flagship G650. There's a solid push to deregulate low altitude airspace and the military-run air traffic control in China. I'm guessing that if this deregulation succeeds we'll see plenty of growth. Many owners turn these over pretty faster than you'd expect.

  4. Joe says:

    given the ever increasing concentration of wealth and the ever increasing hassle of flying commercially, it doesn't seem like a huge stretch for the entire industry to grow to 1,200 units a year over the next 10 years does it?

    1,200 business jets a year, worldwide?

  5. @samwhitmore says:

    It's probably too low, Paul… China alone will buy hundreds of business jets during this decade.

  6. wiscoDude says:

    It would be interesting to see the current purchases broken down by country.

    With that said, increasing concentration of wealth, hassles of flying commercial, the value of time, and expected reductions in manufacturing, I would guess this graph is reasonably conservative. 10 years to double is not incredibly fast growth and even with that, barely achieves a higher rate than 2008.

  7. sam says:

    My thought is that commercial aircraft orders will shrink by half over this period. Ultra-long-range types being the probable exception. I don't think I have a good feel for business jets, but that could run contrary to commercial as that industry contracts. I would cut the growth of light and medium equipment out of this chart. Then, it looks pretty flat to me.