Unpredictably Predictable

“The more unpredictable a situation is, the more information needs to be ignored to predict the future.”

- Gerd Gigerenzer

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Comments

  1. Transor Z says:

    Hmm… this statement is false where "unpredictable" is "unmeasurable" and lack of measurability is caused by lack of inputs.

    For example, you find yourself in the depths of a cave surrounded by pale, flesh-eating bat-manoids. It's pitch black, so no light is striking your photoreceptors. The relative positions in space of the hideous, ghoulish figures creeping towards you are "unpredictable" using eyesight. S/N is not a problem in that scenario. Nothing to filter out.

    • Michael says:

      Wouldn't you just need to filter out everything but the specific sound of footsteps? Seems like it is still a S/N problem.