Unpredictably Predictable

“The more unpredictable a situation is, the more information needs to be ignored to predict the future.”

– Gerd Gigerenzer


  1. Hmm… this statement is false where "unpredictable" is "unmeasurable" and lack of measurability is caused by lack of inputs.

    For example, you find yourself in the depths of a cave surrounded by pale, flesh-eating bat-manoids. It's pitch black, so no light is striking your photoreceptors. The relative positions in space of the hideous, ghoulish figures creeping towards you are "unpredictable" using eyesight. S/N is not a problem in that scenario. Nothing to filter out.

    • Wouldn't you just need to filter out everything but the specific sound of footsteps? Seems like it is still a S/N problem.