Peak Uranium

Peak uranium doth approach.

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Comments

  1. cliffelam says:

    Thought you were taking a break?

    Also, do you mean peak like "peak oil refining"?

    -C

  2. Namazu says:

    Given the work on seawater extraction, perhaps you mean "peak mined uranium." Since I've hit peak mental capacity, I'd be happy if someone who really knows this stuff would weigh in.

  3. Rich HIlt says:

    The acolytes of M. King Hubbert neglect the last few pages of his tome on Peak Oil. His last thoughts are that there is enough uranium to last the world for millenia (ok maybe this is a bit of hyperbola, but still he was a bigger fan of urunium for solving long term energy needs than petroleum)

    Fans of Isaac Asimov (and who are also interested in sustainability) might look at his "The World of Carbon" (1958 – about the same time frame as Hubbert), which is at least as informative as his "Guide to Shakespeare." In discussing his view on the future supply of petroleum, Asimov proposed that the solution was to use agricultural materials to make alcohol products to substitute for gasoline.

    Paul, in trying to look at the direction to take in energizing our world's future it might be best to listen to the old folk song:

    All God's critters got a place in the choir
    Some sing low, some sing higher
    Some sing out loud on the telephone wire
    And some just clap their hands, or paws
    Or anything they got.

    We got a lot of things to help us out of this mess. Hope we can set aside the theologies and ideologies. We'll need to work on way to outlaw "Jevons Paradox" and provide growth (economic, political, et al) for everyone. Well maybe not for the guys on Sand Hill who already have got theirs. They have pretty much abandoned their quest for universal cleantech gold in favor of smart grid gold.

    "On Belay" Paul.

    Best,

    Rich Hilt
    BrightLine Energy

  4. I'm a fan of peak anything but I also see the seeds of the next commodity bear market sprouting.

    The paper mixes a real dog's breakfast of deposit types. Keep in mind uranium spot prices have ranged from ~$10 to a peak of over $130 over the last 15 years.

    Obscenely high grade uranium from the Athabasca Basin put most marginal mines out of production. The 30-50% un-mined uranium is still there. Low prices took it out of the reserve category and high prices put it back.
    Uranium does magically appear about 5-10 years after the price increases. Then stockpiles are created. End of bull market.

    I agree that Dittmar's model is simple but I'm not putting any of my money on its accuracy.