The following collection of oil price forecasts for 2015 show less spread than you might expect. While we have prices ranging from current levels to $200, we have nothing below current levels, and we have a preponderance of forecasts between $80 and $140.
Assuming that’s the market consensus, why aren’t prices higher already? After all, if things are, beyond a doubt, headed higher later, market logic says they should be higher now. Put another way, it is generally a good bet that commodity prices will be somewhere else other than the current consensus.