The Weather According to Economic Forecasters: Sunny!

And now, the weather report. Sunny …

That’s the weather.

Our next weather report will be in 3  days. Thank you.
   – L.A. Story (1991)

I wish I lived in the economic world of forecasters. It is smoother, less prone to crashes, and generally more stable and pleasingly growing all the time. Of course, economic forecasters are hardly ever correct, as this graph shows, but worrying about precision in the face of such an aesthetically pleasing consensus forecasting curve seems unfair.


[via James Montier]