How You Know When Things Are Going to Break

There is a new Nature paper out that is likely to be much-abstracted. The subject: While dynamic systems can reach inflection points at which they change abruptly, how do we know from a system’s current behavior how far – or close – we are to that point?

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

Abstract

Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.

Source:

Marten Scheffer et al., “Early-warning signals for critical transitions,” Nature 461, no. 7260 (2009): 53-59.

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