Short-Term Consumer Surprise Ahead?

Various folks, including the very smart people at Bridgewater, are out arguing that we may see a short-term surprise in the demand side of the U.S. economy. It’s partly stimulus, partly inventory replenishment after a monster rundown, and partly consumer behavior, but the effect would be the same: Some surprises in the next quarter or so in terms of material firming up of U.S. economic activity.

This changes nothing longer-term, of course, but it’s worth noting.