Will a California Credit Default Be Triggered?

I have to confess that while in many ways I think it would be the best thing for California, there still seems little chance California will default on any of its bond obligations. Either it will find one more Republican vote for the proposed tax increases — ugh — or the Feds will show up at 23h59m59s and inject some of our money and push the problem down the road.

Others disagree, however, and with California CDS spreads widening, suggesting a higher likelihood of default, what are the views out there?

Related posts:

1. The 30-year Bond: Where in 2009?
2. Gold in 2009: Up, Down or Elsewhere
3. Credit Default Swaps Market Only $34.8 Trillion! Whew!
4. Figuring Out the Impact of Default Likelihood on Default
5. Credit Default Swaps: Rodents of Unusual Size