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February 13, 2009

The Ireland Problem

Credit default swaps are somwhere between magic eight balls and weekend football betting lines in terms of predictive accuracy, but there is no denying that they are currently auguring a bad credit fortnight for Ireland. The CDS spreads have widened out to 327.5 bps, up 20% in the last day, and Irish spreads had already climbed steeply so far this year. 

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