My colleague Harold Bradley at Kauffman and I have been bouncing back and forth perspectives about the path forward from here. Near-term, I would characterize Harold — and he can correct me — as considerably more bullish than I am. Further out, however, he and I start to re-align, with a range of different forces — deleveraging, developing economies, the shift to cleaner technologies, etc. — all conspiring to create tailwinds for the global economy, outside of housing.
In a recent conversation, however, Harold brought out the following graph which he had done by Ned Davis Research. In essence, it takes a generational view of the entry-level of the housing market, showing the pulse of entry-level buyers (echo-echo boomers) likely to hit the market sometime around 2012-2015. Granted, it doesn’t compensate for boomers downsizing, but it’s still Interesting stuff.