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January 16, 2009

I Speak of the Housing Boom to Come …

My colleague Harold Bradley at Kauffman and I have been bouncing back and forth perspectives about the path forward from here. Near-term, I would characterize Harold -- and he can correct me -- as considerably more bullish than I am. Further out, however, he and I start to re-align, with a range of different forces -- deleveraging, developing economies, the shift to cleaner technologies, etc. -- all conspiring to create tailwinds for the global economy, outside of housing.

In a recent conversation, however, Harold brought out the following graph which he had done by Ned Davis Research. In essence, it takes a generational view of the entry-level of the housing market, showing the pulse of entry-level buyers (echo-echo boomers) likely to hit the market sometime around 2012-2015. Granted, it doesn't compensate for boomers downsizing, but it's still Interesting stuff.

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