January 6, 2009
Averaging pretty much anything to do with historical recessions & related bear markets is a meaningless exercise in spreadsheet-based thumb-sucking. Leaving aside my "financial history is bunk†rant, it doesn’t matter whether you’re averaging recession length, severity, or whatever, it’s...
Courtesy of a reader, a grounded example of how things are even more intense in employment markets than sterile economic data might show: NY Unemployment Claim Systems Overwhelmed Flood of calls, online requests crash NY unemployment systems; no timeline for...
From John Mauldin via Barry, the tumbling path of 2009 earnings estimates for the S&P 500. As Barry points out, a market at 22x forward earnings ain't cheap. Now, whether markets can get cheap when everyone is waiting to buy...
Had to re-read Goetzmann's classic 1996 paper on world markets today, and thought I should share my favorite table from it. It shows survivorship bias in global market performance....
I don't talk specifics on portfolios very often, but I have been helping a family member with their current allocation across ETFs/sectors/funds. They are about fifteen years from retirement, and, while conservative and worried about inflation, are more bullish than...
A helpful report out from insurer Aon showing that things in California could be worse: We could get a significant quake along the San Andreas fault. As it turns out, the fault is pretty much a bus tour of the...
Having the stock of beaten-down private equity company Fortress Investment Group leading the way in year-to-date in U.S. stock performance is appropriately surreal. Before Citi moonshots too, we should close for the year right now with FIG having almost doubled...
