The Payroll Number Over/Under

The range for the November U.S. payroll data is fairly broad, as the following histogram shows. The median from the 73 estimates is job losses of –338,000, but the range goes from –220,000 to -470,000, with a fairly tight cluster between –275,000 and –400,000. There are, however, a few stubborn pessimists hanging around the –450,000 to –470,000 mark, as well as some delusional sorts (that’s you I’m talking about Landesbank Berlin and National Bank Financial) thinking we’ll see numbers closer to –220,000 losses in the month.

All will be revealed at 8:30 am.



[Update] Ah, stubborn pessimists were proven right, as the number came in at 535,000, outside the distribution. Some people didn’t get my tongue-in-cheek post above, and so I’ll be more clear: I remain a economic bear here, as I keep saying on CNBC, and I was including myself in the group stubbornly thinking we’d see worse numbers than the consensus. People on the other side, as I said here, remain delusional.