The range for the November U.S. payroll data is fairly broad, as the following histogram shows. The median from the 73 estimates is job losses of â€“338,000, but the range goes from â€“220,000 to -470,000, with a fairly tight cluster between â€“275,000 and â€“400,000. There are, however, a few stubborn pessimists hanging around the â€“450,000 to â€“470,000 mark, as well as some delusional sorts (that’s you I’m talking about Landesbank Berlin and National Bank Financial) thinking we’ll see numbers closer to â€“220,000 losses in the month.
All will be revealed at 8:30 am.
[Update] Ah, stubborn pessimists were proven right, as the number came in at 535,000, outside the distribution. Some people didn’t get my tongue-in-cheek post above, and so I’ll be more clear: I remain a economic bear here, as I keep saying on CNBC, and I was including myself in the group stubbornly thinking we’d see worse numbers than the consensus. People on the other side, as I said here, remain delusional.