Rethinking U.S. GDP Decline

Breakingviews has this take on why the U.S. GDP decline will likely be larger than the OECD said in its update today:

The $12 trillion contraction in wealth and the end of mortgage equity withdrawals suggest US consumption should decline by 7.6% of GDP. That would give a peak-to-trough real GDP decline of 4-5%. Not the Great Depression, but considerably deeper than OECD’s new forecast.

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