« November 19, 2008 | Main | November 21, 2008 »

Latest Stories

Archives

November 20, 2008

Negative News Flow Peaks Late

As the cascade of devastatingly awful economic news grows in volume, it’s worth reminding yourself that negative news flow is a lagging indicator. We are hearing about what has happened, in other words, not what will happen in the coming weeks and months -- and that has been awful (to the tenth or so power).

news-trends

Now, does that mean that the market has discounted all the badness out there? Of course not. But things will improve on the economic ground, or least stabilize, long before it shows up in the headlines. In the interim, expect the pace of layoff news to spike much, much higher.

Links: Ruble, Daewoo Farms, China Banks, etc.

Some links to items of interest:

  • South Africa newly going from boom to … not so much (Bloomberg)
  • Russian diary: Another revolution in the wings? (LRB)
  • The case for Chapter 11 at GM, not a bailout (NYT)
  • Amerindo’s Vilar convicted of stealing from clients (Bloomberg)
  • Options trading is slowing as hedge funds disappear, and prices soar (Bloomberg)
  • China may not be buying U.S. banks, but it’s opening U.S. branches (II)
  • Daewoo leases massive African plantation to grow food, reduce U.S. dependency (BBC)
  • Vancouver real estate joining its west coast ilk, off 22% (Bloomberg)
  • Data records, date records – we’ve got data records (Ritholtz)