Contest Results: Count the Market Bottoms

Expecting that we would have a market bounce Monday — albeit nothing like the ultra-super-pogo-sproing thing that we did — I launched a contest this past Sunday night. The idea: People had to predict how many times on Monday between 7am and 7pm EST the word "bottom" would be uttered on-air at CNBC.

The guesses flew in, around 50 at last count, and they ranged from zero to hundreds. I am told (although I haven’t calculated it) that the mean guess was for 222 "bottoms", but the standard deviation was fairly monstrous.

So, what was the right number? Courtesy of the fine folks at TVEyes (whose service I am testing for a semi-related project) the number of times the word "bottom" was uttered on-air on CNBC Monday in that 12-hour stretch was … 46 times, or slightly less than four times per hour.  (This number could be low by a couple of mentions, as the conservative TVEye people made clear, but my wander through the transcripts supported the figure.)

Our winner is Andrew Meyer, who guessed 47 "bottoms", which was spooky-close to being correct. Andrew, congratulations! Once you’ve emailed me your coordinates your lovely parting gift will be on its way.

Thanks everyone!

And as a closing aside, I’m not sure if it’s bullish, bearish, or something else altogether that so many people guessed so much higher than proved to be the case. After all, 300 "bottoms" in 12 hours is almost 2.5-times per minute. While that’s not quite like saying "Malkovich Malkovich Malkovich", it’s darn close.

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  3. Smith Barney Calls Market Bottoms in Four Sectors
  4. Because I Love to Count
  5. Yahoo Results: Light or Not?