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October 26, 2008

Research Paper du Jour: Forecasting 0 of the Last 1 Depressions

The most useful research paper you'll read today (or maybe this year) isn't new, but it's still very timely. The paper, "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard vs. Yale", cited in the weekend NY Time by Greg Mankiw, drives home how we shouldn't have been surprised at Depression-era economists' inability forecast that event -- and, indirectly, that current forecasting tools would likely have missed it too.

More here.

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