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October 21, 2008

Why are People Never Taken to Task?

Tonight I was trying to get a sense of what signals were missed earlier this year, so I got to reading comments from various well-known buy-side sorts. Here is a sample from March of 2008:

Economic growth may remain fairly tepid until spring, but we still believe the U.S. will avoid recession and second-half growth will prove stronger than most expect. Even if economic reports stay tepid or “recession scary” for the next few months, investors should try to think “recovery!” Focus on overweighting stocks relative to bonds and economically-sensitive stocks rather than defensive sectors. Small caps over large caps! Emerging rather than developed markets.

This was wrong. Dead wrong. And wealth-destroyingly so. Why are people like this never taken to task? Maybe I should learn my lesson and stop beating myself publicly for my many screw-ups. Apparently it's not necessary.

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