Lots of people noticing today that for various technical reasons, U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rates are back to levels last seen when Freddie/Fannie were nationalized. But that said, and as the following figures shows, all the bleating about high rates looks fairly dubious, historically speaking and in nominal terms.

A quick survey of merger arb spreads, which have been coming down a little since short-selling has been allowed back. Still some big numbers out there, mostly reflecting nervousness about credit markets and financing. Note: I screened on deals announced since March, on companies with reasonable market caps, etc.

As always, click for a larger version.

This paper has been making the rounds, so after a tough week let's call it the research paper of the week. The gist: Given current economic conditions, we can expect heavier, older playmates going forward, with larger waist-to-hip ratios. All of a sudden, I feel like a man out of time.

Playboy Playmate Curves: Changes in Facial and Body Feature Preferences Across Social and Economic Conditions

Past research has investigated ideals of beauty and how these ideals have ranged across time. In the current study, facial and body characteristics of Playboy Playmates of the Year from 1960-2000 were identified and investigated to explore their relationships with U.S. social and economic factors. Playmate of the Year age, body feature measures, and facial feature measurements were correlated with a general measure of social and economic hard times. Consistent with Environmental Security Hypothesis predictions, when social and economic conditions were difficult, older, heavier, taller Playboy Playmates of the Year with larger waists, smaller eyes, larger waist-to-hip ratios, smaller bust-to-waist ratios, and smaller body mass index values were selected. These results suggest that environmental security may influence perceptions and preferences for women with certain body and facial features.

More here.

Okay, there is a second research piece worth pointing to after this long, strange week (month/year/etc.). Here it is, and be sure to read past the title. It's magnificently nutty & interesting stuff.

Noblesse Oblige? Determinants of Survival in a Life and Death Situation

Abstract:
This paper explored the determinants of survival in a life and death situation created by an external and unpredictable shock. We are interested to see whether pro-social behaviour matters in such extreme situations. We therefore focus on the sinking of the RMS Titanic as a quasi-natural experiment do provide behavioural evidence which is rare in such a controlled and life threatening event. The empirical results support that social norm such as "women and children first" survive in such an environment. We also observe that women of reproductive age have a higher probability of surviving among women. On the other hand, we observe that crew members used their information advantage and their better access to resources (e.g. lifeboats) to generate a higher probability of surviving. The paper also finds that passenger class, fitness, group size, and cultural background matter.

I'm particularly fond of how crew members on the Titanic used an "information advantage" to get to lifeboats first. Reminds me of some hedge fund managers I know.