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October 9, 2008

Timeline for the Epic Lehman CDS Auction Tomorrow

Here is (according to Reuters) the timeline for what will be an epic CDS auction tomorrow related to the Lehman bankruptcy. There are huge losses to go around, confusion about counter-parties, and I expect a host of releases tomorrow afternoon as people disclose their newfound liabilities.

9:45 a.m.-10 a.m. Auction participants will submit bids and offers for the debt backing the credit default swaps, which will be used to determine the initial recovery rate of the swaps.

10:30 a.m. Auction administrators Creditex and Markit will publish the initial recovery price and the open interest for the contracts will be published. The open interest reflects the amount of bids and offers that have been made, and will show if there are more buyers than sellers, or vice versa.

12:45 p.m. -1 p.m. Participating dealers will submit limit orders for the debt on behalf of themselves and their clients to fill the open interest

2 p.m. The final price of the auction will be published.

Most people expect prices in the 12-to-13 cents on the dollar, leading to payouts in the $400-billion range.

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