The boots have been put to the decoupling hypothesis, with Europe now in full we've-got-bailouts-too panic, and Asian only slightly behind. People forget, but European banks are, on average, materially more levered than their U.S. counterparts, and, as a result, it doesn't take much to tip them over the liquidity edge.

It is a classic normal accident, in Charles Perrow's terms, with a confluence of actually fairly obvious foibles conspiring together to create an altogether predictable problem, but one that cannot be straightforwardly stopped. To turn to wildfire ecology, my favorite reference discipline during market crises, some of the largest fires just have to burn themselves out.

I know no-one cares about anything other than the synchronized collapse of global credit markets, but runner Haile Gebrselassie's weekend performance in the Berlin Marathon is worth a moment of celebration.

In that flat and fast race, the Ethiopian distance running star set a new Berlin record, plus a new world record, plus breaking the 2:04 barrier for the first time ever. It was an astounding and wonderful performance, truly something to remember.

More here from Science of Sport.

A few quick things to items others may find interesting (and not all credit-market related):

• Merger arb one of only two hedge fund strategies up on the year (HFR)
• Jim Grant interview at the FT (FT)
• Lehman's Demise Triggered Cash Crunch Around Globe (WSJ)
• FirstRain's nice new news/data tracker on global credit crisis (FirstRain)
• Nassim Taleb on collapses and the limits of statistics (Edge)
• Living in a leverage-free world (The Deal)
• Tracking gas shortages around Atlanta (Twitter)
• Ten things that will happen next (Kiplinger):

I've been listing books lately that are about the credit crisis, albeit in indirect fashion, like the excellent Plight of the Fortune-tellers. Today's book is one that isn't really about the crisis at all, but turns out to be terrifyingly on point. It is Robert Frank's Richistan, released only a year ago (even it feels like a hundred).

Frank's book is about the wealthy in America, many of whom are new arrivals via real estate. This will almost certainly turn into a classic period piece about the end of the go-go days.

The chart du jour comes from Google Trends, and it's the twelve month trend in searches for "FDIC" (the folks who insure U.S. banking deposits).

Voting in the U.S. House of Representatives is underway on the financial services bailout bill, and it is a very tight thing. This is going to be brutally close.

Dow is tanking with it looking like a failed vote. Unbelievable.

I am told that people can switch until this is gaveled dead, which can be hours in some cases. Eleven votes needs to cross over, which strikes me as unlikely. Meanwhile, we have a wait on our hands, and the Dow dropped 700 points before coming back somewhat.

I keep getting emails saying, "See, the House voted down the TARP bill, and the world didn't end, so we must be right in saying it was unnecessary."

Three points:

1. The markets aren't convinced TARP is dead -- the U.S. system has more legislative rabbit holes than your average farmer's field -- so at least wait for that before celebrating.
2. The carnage, without some support or assistance (and it doesn't have to be TARP, but nothing is going to easier), will now turn into a rolling boulder, regardless of what the Dow does in the next ten minutes. More banks will fail as overnight credit markets stay closed, small businesses will lose lending lines, consumers will retrench, etc.
3. If you're so convinced that the House has cleverly figured this all out, ask yourself this: Where were these same newly smart people when the credit crisis was building? While Fannie and Freddie rightly had their critics, it is an over-simplifying myth that the credit crisis is a function of Fannie/Freddie alone. The thing was far past them when it peaked in 2005/06.

Until people grow up and think past their political vendettas, we are just moving around the deck chairs on the Titanic. Hope you're all enjoying the views.

Words don't do it justice, so here you are, your moment of markets non-zen. I'm still amazed at the nitwits who thought they had an argument-stopper simply because the markets didn't fall 1,000 points when the House TARP vote was gaveled.

[Update] We're seeing a teensy bounce into the close, and are now off a mere 570 points (5.1%) on the Dow.

Some useful analysis here from the Washington Post on why the bailout bill failed, despite being described by the President and both parties' leaders as critical and essential. I accept most of the arguments, ranging from bad salesmanship on outward, but I also think he makes a provocative point at the close that is certain to start arguments:

It's possible despite weeks of warnings, and a stock market that is cratering as we speak, that a lot of members still aren't taking any of this seriously enough. And that, ultimately, may be the real reason for today's vote.

More here.

From today's WSJ, a motley coalition that showed up at the NYSE to protest the TARP bill's possible passage.

[Copyright Shannon Stapleton/Reuters]