The 300-Point Bear Market Rally Thing

My friend Barry has up a post claiming (via David Rosenberg of Merrill) the following: 300-point Dow rallies only happen in bear markets. It’s a great claim — amusing, contrarian and fun — but is it true?

It’s a good spreadsheet exercise, so rather than giving the answer, I’ll let readers puzzle it through. With some reasonable assumptions — like what, precisely, is a bear market? — see if you can truth check the 300-point claim.

And for extra points, broaden the definition and turn the 300-points into percentage terms. Does that change anything?

I’ll post my answer later.

Related posts:

  1. Out All Day. Sorry About the Bear Stearns Thing.
  2. Explaining the Bear Stearns $7 Price
  3. Further Thoughts on Bear Stearns at Ebay
  4. Type II VC Error
  5. Google: Making the Bear Case