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August 22, 2008

Ben Bernanke Goes to Jackson Hole: 2007 vs 2008

I was just comparing Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech at the current Kansas City Fed event this year to his speech there last year. Lots of things pop out, so you should read them both, but here is a fun way of quickly comparing the two.

First up, the tag cloud -- larger fonts denote words used more often -- for last year's speech.

bernanke-2007

And now, the tag cloud for the current year's speech:

bernanke-2008

Anyone else get the feeling that Ben's more worried about the entire financial system than about mere mortgages? Me too.

[Created via Wordle]

Founding Fathers as First Real Estate Developers

Interesting NPR segment this morning on Morning Edition where author Witold "Last Harvest" Rybczynski made the following claim:

Virtually all the [U.S.] founding fathers were real estate developers.

Well, at least we know who to (in absentia) congratulate/blame.

[via NPR]

The Ebay Fannie/Freddie Insider Selling Sign

Not sure if I've mentioned it here before, but I'm fond of my handy-dandy Ebay-based bankruptcy indicator. It works like this: When high-profile companies are in dire financial straits, or at least employees perceive that to be the case, insiders start selling ... golf shirts and baseball caps.

Back when when Bear Stearns was going under there was a paroxysm of ponchos, pens and golf shirts, one that grew into a flood in the borked broker's dying days. My hypothesis is that something similar happens in most such cases, with disgruntled employees selling off everything that isn't nailed down to try make some money from the impending end.

fannie-freddie-ebayIs there any sign that something similar is going on with Ebay sales of Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae stuff? Are we seeing an avalanche of golf shirts and the like from people at either of those places?

Not yet. So far there is only one lonely Freddie Mac golf shirt , and three pieces of Fannie Mae clothing -- and in all four cases the stuff is from an Ebay store, not an auction.

So, insiders at these two companies haven't started selling, at least not yet anyway. But watch the golf shirts. They tell all.