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August 18, 2008

[Updated] Is the Overseas Revenue Switch Underway?

A year ago overseas markets were all the rage. A weaker U.S. dollar and fast-growing markets in Asia, in particular, were keeping the U.S. out of recession, despite a rapidly weakening U.S. consumer.

Fair enough. But what happens a year later? Because now we have the reverse: A strengthening U.S. dollar, and rapidly weakening overseas markets -- and a U.S. consumer who looks, post stimulus, like someone who needs to lie down for a year or two.

It's awfully hard not to argue that, with the above in mind, we are in for a weaker second half of the year. And which sectors are likely to be the sketchiest? Those sectors with the most exposure to overseas markets, followed by those needing consumers to goose 'em.

Using some recent S&P data, here is what the sectoral exposure trends look like. As always, click for a larger version.

Tech leads the way, followed closely by utilities and energy. Definitely something to watch.

Update: Apparently others are beginning to notice too, as this new Reuters piece shows.

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