A year ago overseas markets were all the rage. A weaker U.S. dollar and fast-growing markets in Asia, in particular, were keeping the U.S. out of recession, despite a rapidly weakening U.S. consumer.

Fair enough. But what happens a year later? Because now we have the reverse: A strengthening U.S. dollar, and rapidly weakening overseas markets -- and a U.S. consumer who looks, post stimulus, like someone who needs to lie down for a year or two.

It's awfully hard not to argue that, with the above in mind, we are in for a weaker second half of the year. And which sectors are likely to be the sketchiest? Those sectors with the most exposure to overseas markets, followed by those needing consumers to goose 'em.

Using some recent S&P data, here is what the sectoral exposure trends look like. As always, click for a larger version.

Tech leads the way, followed closely by utilities and energy. Definitely something to watch.

Update: Apparently others are beginning to notice too, as this new Reuters piece shows.

I was scanning the new Fenwick & West Q1 release on Bay Area venture capital activity, and it's hard not to come to this conclusion: Venture capital rules, baby!

In these troubled economic times what other asset class has seen persistent price increases (17th quarter in a row), with the average round up 49% from the prior investment? That rocks.

But wait. The total number of VC deals was down in Q1, and the total amount of money invested was the lowest since 2006. Further, there is no word on how many of these financings were inside deals, with VCs raising prices on rounds in which they are also the investor in the preceding round.

So, higher asset prices on fewer transactions, and no clarity on how many are inside deals? That sounds familiar. What could it be? Hmmm. Gosh, it sounds like the dying days of the real estate bubble, circa late 2006.

Two fascinating charts from the folks at Zillow today. Both highlight current trends in negative equity -- homeowners who owe more on their home than it is worth -- albeit in different ways.

First, here is a look at number of homes with negative equity split out by year purchased and by region. Those foolsbuyers who picked up homes in 2006 stand out in a fairly striking way.

Next up, here is percentage of all U.S. homes by region currently sporting negative equity:

Despite the recency of the bubble, and despite the giant stock of U.S. houses, you get a sense for the immensity of the issue. To have 13.9% percent of homes nationally, and 18.2% of homes in the west owing more than their worth is quite a fear in a five-year bubble. Congrats everyone,

An absurdly interesting map splitting the U.S. up by in an alternative and Pychonian line of places where "pop" or "soda" is the most popular colloquial way of referring to carbonated beverages.

Speaking as a Canadian used to confusing Americans by saying "soft drink" instead of pop or soda or coke etc., this map should be in guidebooks.

[via PopvsSoda]

There is a fascinating piece in the September issue of National Geographic on how dirt is becoming a growth industry. With food demand accelerating, and millions of acres of agricultural land degraded via salination and over-use, and other land becoming fallow due to compaction, this is a pressing topic, and an area ripe for innovation.

Big, heavy machines like the harvesters mash wet soil into an undifferentiated, nigh impenetrable slab—a process called compaction. Roots can't penetrate compacted ground; water can't drain into the earth and instead runs off, causing erosion. And because compaction can occur deep in the ground, it can take decades to reverse. Farm-equipment companies, aware of the problem, put huge tires on their machines to spread out the impact. And farmers are using satellite navigation to confine vehicles to specific paths, leaving the rest of the soil untouched. Nonetheless, this kind of compaction remains a serious issue—at least in nations where farmers can afford $400,000 harvesters.

Unfortunately, compaction is just one, relatively small piece in a mosaic of interrelated problems afflicting soils all over the planet. In the developing world, far more arable land is being lost to human-induced erosion and desertification, directly affecting the lives of 250 million people. In the first—and still the most comprehensive—study of global soil misuse, scientists at the International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC) in the Netherlands estimated in 1991 that humankind has degraded more than 7.5 million square miles of land. Our species, in other words, is rapidly trashing an area the size of the United States and Canada combined.

More here on how Haiti has lost the ability to feed itself.

A comment from Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg got me thinking, perversely enough, that one money-making trend to watch going forward will almost certainly be a burgeoning U.S. market in -- wait for it -- frugality.

Frugality is going to set in

As far as I know, there are only two ways to eliminate debt. You either walk away from it, which people obviously are doing, which is why we got these write-downs and these foreclosures, or you pay it down. I think people with a FICO score that they are concerned about are going to pay that down. That means that the savings rate is going to be forced higher. This, again, is going to be very, very disinflationary. It means that fashions are going to change. It means frugality is going to set in. We're going to be living in smaller houses, driving smaller cars and living more frugally. It's not going to be the end of the world; it's going to be a necessary process to truly embark on getting the balance sheets down to more comfortable levels so that we can actually embark on the next cycle.

[via John Mauldin]

Matthias: Could be worse.
Centurion: What you mean "Could be worse"?!
Matthias: Well, you could be stabbed.
Centurion: Stabbed? Stabbing takes a second. Crucifixion lasts hours. It's a slow, horrible death.
Matthias: Well, at least it gets you out in the open air.
Centurion: ... You're weird.

     - Life of Brian (1979)

Gosh, but some economists are helpful. You'd think they'd be all gloom and doom about the current economy, with there seemingly nothing but bad news out there. But no. Some economics researchers can find a silver lining anywhere, even in the prospect of mass starvation.

Between 1996 and 1998, Russia experienced a spectacular decline in economic activity which was followed by a dramatic rebound between 1998 and 2000. We use panel data to examine the impact of variation in household resources on six dimensions of nutritional status, distinguishing longer-run from short-term fluctuations in resources. Nutritional status is very resilient to short-term variation in household resources. Gross energy intake, adult weight and child stature change very little as expenditure deviates from its long-run average. Longer-run resources have a substantively large, positive and significant effect on energy intake, diet quality, adult weight and child stature. The evidence indicates that individuals and households are able to weather short-term fluctuations in economic resources, at least in terms of maintaining body mass and energy intake.

Source:

   Nutritional Status During an Economic Crisis: Evidence from Russia

   Stillman, Steven; Thomas, Duncan

   The Economic Journal, Volume 118, Number 531, August 2008 , pp. 1385-1417(33)

Folks, it's your last chance to submit a proposal for the O'Reilly Money:Tech Conference 2009. If you have something cool at the confluence of finance and technology that you'd like to show off, or a really interesting idea for a talk or session or panel, get it in now.

Ping me or Rob Passarella if you have any questions. But if you send any queries to me, make sure they're short and easy ones.