Technical Analysis Sucks There. There Too. And There.

I’m glad it wasn’t me who wrote the paper, but I was amused to see the following today. Nothing like definitely proving something doesn’t work everywhere, as opposed to proving it in just a few places.

Technical Analysis Around the World: Does it Ever Add Value?

Technical analysis is not consistently profitable in the 49 countries that comprise the Morgan Stanley Capital Index once data snooping bias is accounted for. There is some evidence that technical trading rules perform better in emerging markets than developed markets, which is consistent with the finding of previous studies that these markets are less efficient, but this result is not strong. While we cannot rule out the possibility that technical analysis compliments other market timing techniques, we do show that it does not add value beyond what may be expected by chance when used in isolation.

Of course, I’m sure supporters will argue that only their proprietary variants of technical analysis work, not those other useless kinds. That may or may not be true, but let’s just say that case is tougher to make given that the paper’s authors considered more than 5,000 technical trading rules.

[via SSRN]