« July 13, 2008 | Main | July 15, 2008 »

Latest Stories

Archives

July 14, 2008

The Case for Wiping out Fannie/Freddie Shareholders

Peter Wallison at AEI has a missive out applauding the government's move in supporting Freddie/Fannie, but scolding them for fuzziness about their equity purchase plans. If/when they decide to purchase shares they need to wipe out Freddie/Fannie shareholders -- or risk bigger losses down the road.

Here is Peter:

The Treasury’s formal recognition of the government’s responsibility for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is an important and essential step forward. No other position was possible in current conditions. The market reaction shows that Treasury secretary Henry Paulson’s statement had the desired effect: the market is now convinced that the U.S. government stands behind Fannie and Freddie.

The proposal to purchase an equity position in either Fannie or Freddie, however, would be a mistake unless their existing shareholders are wiped out and the government takes full control of their management. Allowing the continued operation of the companies as private, shareholder-owned institutions, while the taxpayers are ultimately responsible for their losses, recapitulates our experience with the savings and loans less than twenty years ago. In that case, forbearance in closing them down when they were insolvent, or nearly so, allowed them to “gamble for resurrection,” ultimately increasing the losses that the taxpayers were required to shoulder. The same result can be expected if Fannie and Freddie are allowed to operate indefinitely with government capitalization. Regulation alone has never been able to prevent this risk-taking.

The same problem is present when and if the government lends to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac without assuming control of their operations. Again, government support allows them to continue taking risks, which will only increase the losses when the taxpayers ultimately have to meet their obligations and close them down. Nevertheless, a substantial line of credit for Fannie and Freddie at the Treasury would be necessary to meet their obligations as they come due, while their operations are reformed or wound down. Their assets cannot be sold in amounts necessary to meet these obligations without putting further downward pressure on already stressed housing and mortgage markets.

Finally, the proposal to open the Fed’s discount window to Fannie and Freddie makes no sense at all unless they cannot raise funds in the credit markets. The capital markets have always believed that Fannie and Freddie were backed by the U.S. government, and the recent moves by Treasury confirm the validity of that view. In that case, both government-sponsored enterprises should be able to raise funds in the credit markets at lower rates and in larger amounts than they could borrow from the Federal Reserve, and without collateral. If the credit markets are now unwilling to lend freely to Fannie and Freddie, however, there is no choice but to enact legislation that will enable them to be taken over by a receiver. Borrowing from the Fed can only be an interim step in that direction.

Herb Greenberg Exits CNBC, Stage Left

Sad day for CNBC, and for me as well: My good friend, neighbor, and sometime CNBC sparring partner friend Herb Greenberg is exiting, stage left. He departed Marketwatch earlier this year -- where he was the site's most consistently interesting and provocative columnist -- to start Greenberg Meritz, a boutique equity research firm. Now, however, that new startup gig is taking up so much of his time that he has decided to cease his regular CNBC appearances as well.

I watched Herb struggle with this decision, but, as I told him, I think it's the right one. Startups take time. And equity research is tough, with you having to be careful not to put out information in advance of what you deliver to paying clients. And, if you're a pro like Herb, if you can't talk about what you're working on, what are you going to talk about on TV?

I'll miss you Herb, at least on CNBC. But two upsides: Now the parking spot in front of the downtown studio will be open more often, and, more importantly, maybe we can grab lunch more often now than our usual once ever two years or so pace.

(Credit where credit is due: While I have known about this for some time, Barry broke the news.)

Freudian Fannie Finance Slip at Google

Google Finance made a Freudian algorithmic slip earlier today when slapping some artwork beside a story on Freddie & Fannie's problems. Check the company name in the following screen grab (courtesy of reader Daniel):

grab

New Africa ETF Worth a Look

There is a new Africa ETF out and trading, courtesy of the people at Van Eck Global. Modeled on the Dow Jones Africa Titans 50 Index, the Africa Index ETF is intended to give investors direct exposure to African economies via companies with the largest presence there, whether headquartered there or elsewhere.

Ticker is AFT (although doesn't show up yet), and it is heavily weighted to banks and resources. Here is the list of the top 25 current holdings:

MOBILE TELECOMMUNICATIONS CO  ZAIN KK
TULLOW OIL PLC  TLW LN
SASOL LTD.  SOL SJ
FIRST BANK OF NIGERIA PLC  FIRSTBAN NL
ORASCOM TELECOM HOLDING  ORTE EY
ORASCOM CONSTRUCTION INDS  OCIC EY
ZENITH INTERNATIONAL BANK LTD.  ZENITHBA NL
IMPALA PLATINUM HOLDINGS LTD.  IMP SJ
MTN GROUP LTD.  MTN SJ
MAROC TELECOM  IAM MC
INTERCONTINENTAL BANK PLC  INTERCON NL
ATTIJARIWAFA BANK  ATW MC
UNITED BANK FOR AFRICA PLC  UBA NL
DOUJA PROMOTION GROUPE ADDOHA  ADH MC
FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS LTD.  FM CN
GUARANTY TRUST BANK PLC  GUARANTY NL
ACERGY SA  ACY NO
UNION BANK OF NIGERIA PLC  UBN NL
NIGERIAN BREWERIES PLC  NB NL
BANQUE MAROCAINE DU COMMERCE EXT.  BCE MC
STANDARD BANK GROUP LTD.  SBK SJ
REMGRO LTD.  REM SJ
RANDGOLD RESOURCES LTD.  GOLD US
ANGLO PLATINUM LTD.  AMS SJ
ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD.  ANG SJ

And here is the country breakdown:

SOUTH AFRICA 24.72%
OFFSHORE 24.32% 
   ANGOLA  1.98%
   DR CONGO  1.54%
   EQUATORIAL GUINEA  6.22%
   GHANA   0.66%
   MALI   1.73%
   NIGERIA   7.30%
   SOUTH AFRICA  1.52%
   ZAMBIA  3.37%
EGYPT  13.09%
MOROCCO  11.44%
KENYA     1.18%

Tracking Catastrophes

Meant to mention this sooner, but one of my favorite morning spots to check is RMS's new-ish Current Cat Activity. Keep in mind, of course, that "cat" is short for "catastrophe", and so it's not a tracker for deranged felines. Anyway, good stuff on the latest big things happening on the globe, from floods to hurricanes, and everything in-between.

Here's an example from earlier today:

7/14/2008, East Pacific - Elida reached hurricane status today, making it the second hurricane of the East Pacific 2008 season. At 09:00 UTC (02:00 am PDT) the center of Elida was located near 16.2N 108.2W, about 335 miles (535 km) south-southwest of the Cabo Corrientes (Mexico) and 475 miles (765 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja, California, with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph (120 km/hr), and an estimated minimum central pressure of 987 mb. Elida is moving toward the west northwest at 16 mph (26 km/hr) and is expected to continue on this course over the next 24 to 48 hours with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Little change in strength is expected within the next 24 hours although some additional strengthening is possible in the short-term as suggested by all of the available intensity models. In a day or so, Elida will move over cooler waters and this should result in gradual weakening. Elida’s west-northwest motion is due to steering by a mid-level ridge over Northern Mexico. This ridge is due to build westward during the next few days but not quite as fast as Elida’s westward motion and so this should result in a continued west-northwest motion with a slower forward speed. In 2-3 days Elida is expected to turn more towards the west as it is steered by lower level flow. There is good agreement of the track guidance models, suggesting Elida will continue to move away from land. RMS will continue to monitor Elida but will only update this report if Elida is predicted to impact land.

Please God, Give Me One More Bubble

A popular bumper sticker after the dot-com collapse of almost a decade ago said something like this: "Please God, just one more bubble." Leaving aside that we had one more -- make that two more -- bubbles, and most people still didn't know what to do, it was amusing.

Here's the Onion taking that sentiment to the next level today:

Recession-Plagued Nation Demands New Bubble To Invest In

July 14, 2008 | Issue 44•29

WASHINGTON—A panel of top business leaders testified before Congress about the worsening recession Monday, demanding the government provide Americans with a new irresponsible and largely illusory economic bubble in which to invest. "What America needs right now is not more talk and long-term strategy, but a concrete way to create more imaginary wealth in the very immediate future," said Thomas Jenkins, CFO of the Boston-area Jenkins Financial Group, a bubble-based investment firm. "We are in a crisis, and that crisis demands an unviable short-term solution.

Read the rest here.

The Slimfast Diet for Airlines

Fascinating data points from an ATA document on how airlines are trying to slim down to save weight and stay in business given jet fuel at record levels:

  • One airline saved over 17 gallons/year per pound of weight per airplane after shedding inflight phones, ovens, excess potable water, and some galley equipment on an older fleet
  • In removing seatback phones from its MD-80s and B737-400s, another airline shed 200 pounds per airplane, translating into 3,400+ gallons saved annually
  • Alaska Airlines indicated in March 2004 that removing just five magazines per aircraft could save $10,000 per year in fuel; also, the airline has reduced the weight of catering supplies
  • Air Canada considered stripping primer and paint from its 767s to save 360 lbs. per plane
  • JetBlue and US Airways and others have moved toward a paperless cockpit
  • By removing six seats, JetBlue reduced A320 weight by approximately 904 pounds
  • Airlines have been able to remove ovens, trash compactors, or even entire galleys, due to the elimination of hot meals on selected flights; others are using lighter seats; they have also removed magazine racks and replaced hard cabin dividers with curtains
  • AirTran ordered carbon fiber Recaro seats for its 737-700s to shave 19.4 pounds per row, resulting in estimated fuel savings of $2,000 per year per aircraft
  • Alaska’s new beverage cart, at 20 lbs. lighter, could save $500,000 in annual fuel costs
  • Some airlines flush lavatories during extended ground delays to minimize takeoff weight

Imagine how much we could save without passengers, or, heck, without flying at all!

linkfest: planes, trains, and mortgages

Catching up on oodles of good reading today:

  • Solar's hot real estate market (Fortune)
  • Jet fuel premium to fall as air travel industry contracts radically (Bloomberg)
  • Lehman should go private (Bloomberg)
  • Waiting in line: Condos back then, bank run today (Los Angeles Times)
  • Tanta on Krugman on the GSEs (CR)
  • Chula Vista foreclosure map (Trulia)
  • Andy Grove on our electric future (American)
  • Recession-plagued nation demands new bubble (Onion)

Best Newspaper Front Page Today: Mortgages and Mudslides

The Seattle Times gets the award for best newspaper front page today for this timely juxtaposition: mortgages and mudslides.

headlines

[via Gregor]

Tour de Starbucks Closures

This live map I created of the first batch of Starbucks closures represents an interesting cross-section of the subprime-struck, plus a swath of middle America.


View Larger Map

[via Consumerist]