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June 12, 2008

Quote du Jour: TV and the Comedic Housing Collapse

If you, like me, watch in gob-smacked amazement at the continuing impressive ratings pulled by the fantasy-land real estate shows on TV, then read a piece in today's NY Times. Among other things, it contains this keeper of an unintentionally comedic quote from one producer:

“People loved comedies during the depression, too,” said R. J. Cutler, executive producer of “Flip That House.”

So you're saying .... oh, never mind.

[via NYT]

U.S. Markets Are So-ooo ... 2004

Here is a nifty chart showing the declining percentage of global market capitalization made up by the S&P 500. I'd love to see something similar for trading volumes too, but this is still eye-opening.

[via Bespoke]

Visualizing Oil Production: 1965 - 2007

Here is the flip side of my earlier chart on oil consumption trends from 1965-2007. This one is a dynamic look at oil production during the period. Don't forget to set the bubble size to "barrels", and you can hover over the key to see which color corresponds to which bubble.

Lots of interesting stuff pops out, including the backslide in U.S. production, the Saudi flatlining, the emergence and deline of Russia, etc.

Update: Click just right of the y-axis to make it log(Growth) rather than just Growth.

Trading Data is Worth More Than Trades

Here is a great factoid, if not entirely surprising, about the profits exchanges earn from trading versus trading data.

The moves by NYSE and Nasdaq OMX come at a time when the exchanges are seeking to generate as much revenue as possible from market data, which now makes up for a larger share of revenue than equities trading. At Nasdaq, market data generates 20 percent of revenue, while at NYSE, the figure is 14 percent.At Nasdaq, market data generates 20 percent of revenue, while at NYSE, the figure is 14 percent.

Fascinating.

[via Reuters]

We Realize You have a Choice of Bankrupt Airlines

This quote caught my attention today on the ever-illiquid airline industry:

Nine small airlines have gone into bankruptcy or stopped operating in the last six months, crushed by the doubling of fuel prices in the last year, but so far very little capacity has actually been taken out of the market.

Four of the major U.S. carriers have been through bankruptcy in the past five years ...

Reminds me of something a pilot on a flight I was on once said while landing: We realize you have a choice of bankrupt airlines, so we're glad you chose ours.

[via Reuters]

Carl Icahn: Smart, Stupid or Just Plain Screwed?

You have to shake your head at how this Microsoft/Yahoo misadventure has ended up. Yahoo turned its nose up at a huge 50% premium, then Microsoft handled negotiations about as clumsily as a contractor after Friday drinks , and then Carl Icahn tried to insert some adult and shareholder-friendly thinking, only to get blown up today.

The latest revelation? Microsoft apparently "categorically" told Yahoo's board in a meeting four days ago that it would, under no circumstances, buy all of Yahoo, not even at the $33 price it pseudo-offered for the company weeks ago.

That is frickin' nuts. How could Carl Icahn be expected to stick-handle his way past a founder/CEO given too much initial slack, plus a deranged CEO-salesguy whose board trusts him so little with acquisition offers that he had to first mumble "$33" up his sleeve, and then had to walk away from it a scant few weeks later. Nuts. Absolutely nuts.

Now, could Carl Icahn could riding back in with Microsoft after Yahoo fires Yang, changes its board chair, etc.? Sure, but why would he hang around to do a deal at lower prices than the one at which he (and his friends) purchased a stake? That'd be stupid, and he'd have a moral victory but be financially screwed.

Anyone see another outcome in here? Because I don't right now.

Microsoft is Doing Some Spinning

plates_phone_croppedMicrosoft is doing some heavy-handed spinning of its new decision to not buy Yahoo at any price. Here is Microsoft from today's release:

As stated on May 3rd and reiterated on May 18th Microsoft was not interested in rebidding for all of Yahoo!.

Really? That's interesting, because I don't remember Microsoft ever saying anything like that. I remember it talking about alternatives, and it complaining that Yahoo turned down its $33 offer, but I don't remember Microsoft saying it wasn't interested in rebidding.

Then again, I have a poor memory, so let's go to the tape. Here is the relevant passage from the May 3rd release:

... your apparent plan to pursue such an arrangement in the event of a proxy contest or exchange offer leads me to the firm decision not to pursue such a path. Instead, I hereby formally withdraw Microsoft’s proposal to acquire Yahoo!.

Yo Steve, to "formally withdraw" one offer is not the same as never rebidding.

Let's move forward to the May 18th release, however. Maybe that's when Ballmer tipped his hand about never rebidding. Here is the relevant passage:

Microsoft is not proposing to make a new bid to acquire all of Yahoo! at this time, but reserves the right to reconsider that alternative depending on future developments and discussions that may take place with Yahoo! or discussions with shareholders of Yahoo! or Microsoft or with other third parties.

Yeesh. Not only is Ballmer not saying he won't rebid, he categorically reserves the right to rebid in future. Where am I supposed to get "not interested in rebidding" from this? I am no English major, but I get something closer to the opposite.

While there are clearly issues at Yahoo requiring a change of leadership, Microsoft is, if anything, in more need of change. This sort of heavy-handed spinning of what has happened over the last few months should be offensive to any semi-sentient being.

Media Mentions

Two quick media notes for people who have these things called "televisions" -- and I know that many of you don't. For the former group, I am guest-hosting on CNBC's The Call tomorrow morning from 8am to 9am PST. I am also popping up around 9:20am PST on CNBC's Power Lunch.

Yahoo --> Google --> Yawn

Words cannot expressed my indifference to the Yahoo/Google deal.
Words cannot expressed my indifference to the Yahoo/Google deal.
Words cannot expressed my indifference to the Yahoo/Google deal.
Words cannot expressed my indifference to the Yahoo/Google deal.
Words cannot expressed my indifference to the Yahoo/Google deal.
Words cannot expressed my indifference to the Yahoo/Google deal.
Words cannot expressed my indifference to the Yahoo/Google deal.
Words cannot expressed my indifference to the Yahoo/Google deal.
Words cannot expressed my indifference to the Yahoo/Google deal.
Words cannot expressed my indifference to the Yahoo/Google deal.

That is all.