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May 5, 2008

Bill Miller on Yahoo/Microsoft: Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda

Bill Miller of Legg Mason, Yahoo's sub-performing second-largest institutional shareholder, gave an interview today to the NY Times wherein he opined on opportunities missed, etc. in the now-defunct MSFT/YHOO deal.

Some highlights, the first one of which in particular struck me:

  • There was a deal to be had at $35  that he and other big shareholders supported, and he was surprised Microsoft didn't work harder to get it. We have now heard that both Yahoo's Yang and Miller were puzzled Microsoft didn't counter Yahoo's $37 position on Saturday. I think this is, far from pricing discipline, as Goldman Sachs says in a note tonight, further fuzzy and undisciplined thinking on Steve Ballmer's part.
  • Miller thinks Microsoft had no choice here, and that not going forward was a big strategic blunder. Admittedly, he would say that as a major shareholder, but it's at least an arguable point -- and one with which I generally agree.
  • He now expects Yahoo to do a major share buyback, and will be pissed if it doesn't.
  • He does not like the idea of an AOL tie-up, and is only somewhat more fond of a limited advertising tie-up with Google. His argument: Why didn't Yahoo management do either deal before Microsoft came along? Good question, Mr. Bill.

More here.

Greenspan Goes for "Pale Recession" Googlewhack

Alan Greenspan must have been up late in the bathtub again last night. In a new Bloomberg interview he coins yet another of his colorfully empty expressions: "pale recession", to describe the current economic weakness. That one now goes on the list alongside "irrational exuberance" and, yes, "infectious greed", both of which are cutesy things the ex-Fed chief came up with (really!) while bathing.

But turning to this new one, just WTF is a "pale recession"? It sounds like a Clint Eastwood flick crossed with a Nabokov novel, which makes about as much sense as it could given that muddled genealogical line. What does it mean?

Nothing, is my guess. Clearly Greenspan is up to media tricks and the 82-year-old is going for a Googlewhack -- a short search for which there is only one Google result -- and he has almost pulled it off, as you can see below:

pale

Am I the only one tickled that the other results, not counting his own quote, are almost all to French existentialist Albert Camus? Well, maybe that's just me.

A Tale of Three Stocks: Microsoft vs Yahoo vs Google

Here is a graph of Yahoo, Microsoft, and Google from announcement of the failed deal to today. Note that only Google ended today up -- both Microsoft and Yahoo fell on the day. The latter wasn't a surprise, but the former apparently was to some people.

compare

What a slap in the face to Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer. He cancels the Yahoo deal and shareholders still don't see fit to get optimistic about his company. Does anyone think the market would have reacted the same way if Ballmer would have resigned?

Be It Resolved: Floor Brokers Rule -- Despite 20% Cut

Anyone buy the following argument at all from NYSE CEO Niederauer today in favor of keeping floor traders around, despite a predicted 15-20% decline in their numbers:

When you get into volatile periods, people want to use the floor more, they want to get experts involved, they want human judgment.

As I have said before, the people who will suffer most from no NYSE floor brokers are the TV networks. No more backdrop of people doing ... whatever the hell floor brokers doing in an age of electronic trading.

[via Reuters]