Why Was Everyone Wrong-sided on Google?

Pretty much everyone thought Google would miss tonight. And more than half of those people thought Google would, at least implicitly, guide down.

Why was everyone wrong-sided on Google? Here are some possible explanations:

  • Comscore data had people convinced that first-quarter paid click data was disastrous
  • It just made sense that online ad spending would be cut, especially given financial services dependency, and Google has to be hurt if/when that happens
  • Google missed (sort of last quarter), and everyone assumed the wheel had come off and stayed off

I lean to the first bullet: Blame Comscore. As some are pointing out, and as Comscore’s aftermarket weakness is showing, this is turning into an acid test for Comscore — and it’s failing.