The swamis behind the Fed Futures market are newly tipping the increasing likelihood of no Fed rate change at the upcoming meeting. I'm totally onside with that view, but am not convinced that the Fed is with us. Like usual, the Fed will almost certainly overshoot, albeit in the downward direction.

My friends at TheStreet.com go on a rice-related humanitarian mission on the the street of New York. Their mission: To allay the current raging food panic causing so much rice hoarding.

Nice passage from the FT's Alphaville today that I'll quote in full here, touching on rising food prices, oil, etc.:

Something is deeply wrong in the global economy as inflation and over-fast growth lead to strains in an ever-growing number of markets (from coal, iron, shipping, steel, tin, copper, electricity, crude oil and distillates) and an ever-growing number of price restrictions and non-market responses (from diesel price controls in China and the rest of Asia, export embargos on steel in India, rice embargoes in India and Vietnam, to supermarket price freezes in the Persian Gulf and now purchasing limits in the United States). These are all symptoms of an global economy where demand is far outstripping supply, creating shortages and intense and accelerating upward pressure on prices. One way or another, growth is set to slow very sharply over the next two years - either of its own accord or because the major central banks in the United States, the Anglo-Saxon economies and China will be forced to start tightening credit conditions to prevent inflation lifting off. The economic outlook is becoming progressively grimmer.

Speaking of scarcity, the Nintendo Wii is still in strangely short suppy. According to the Nintendo of America president, the average Wii sits on the shelf for a vanishingly short hour before being sold.

I'm guessing it's only a matter of time before people begin bartering them for rice, or vice-versa.

[via Wired]

Microsoft's just-released numbers look weak to me. Revenue was a little lighter than expected, while EPS was just okay. Guidance is decent on revenues, but no hell on earnings. Looks like Windows and Office were both somewhat sucky in the quarter.

So what does this mean for Microsoft? It means the company was whistling past the online graveyard when implying it might abandon its Yahoo bid. Sure, it might, but that would be even more unhinged than usual from this oft-unhinged company. The market was looking for a blockbuster quarter from Microsoft, and it didn't get it, so Microsoft needs juice (read:Yahoo) more than ever.