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April 17, 2008

Traveling Today. Live Google Coverage Later.

Traveling today, so not able to weigh in on things the way I would like. For instance, I'm still irritated at all the people who are irritated that IBM isn't working as a tech market tell. Hello? Hello?!

I will, however, be on the Google earnings call later today, so look for it live here on the blog around 4pm EST.

Google Results Out

The Google results are out, and it's not nearly as bad as people expected. Matter of fact, it's damn good: Revenues of $5.19-billion; earnings of $1.55-billion.

Stock is up 11% afterhours. More shortly.

Here is the release.

Google versus the Cheat Sheet

Here is how Google came in versus one cheat sheet (Mahaney's at Citi) floating around out there:

  • Net revenues -- Forecast $3.54b / Actual: $4.0b
  • Earnings -- Forecast: $1.76b / Actual $1.83b
  • EPS: -- Forecast: $4.50 / Actual: $4.84

It's an across-the-board beat. Paid clicks were up 20% versus the 16% numbers (and lower) being carried on the street.

This is pain for the bears -- including my friend Henry at SAI. To be fair to Henry, he points to the capital expenditures of $842-million in the quarter. What. in. the. world. are. these. GOOG. guys. building?

Google CapEx in Context. Moon base Theory, Redux.

For you conspiracy theorists -- Google's building a moon base! Google's building a moon base! -- here is the last five quarters of Google's re-spiraling CapEx:

goog-capex

Google Conference Call Comments

Hanging on the Google conference call. Nothing exciting so far.

Being tipped that capex will likely continue to current levels or beyond.

Sergey tipping 100 improvements in search introduced in quarter. Not to be rude, but does this deserve so much time?This is awfully inside search-baseball for the opening of an earnings call.

As an aside, I have out my iPhone timer for the inevitable Mary Meeker question.

Wait. Sergey talking mobile. Something coming? News? Oh, language versions. Mobile search traffic "growing rapidly". Great, glad to hear that. I was so worried. Youtube? "Mobile video traffic growing rapidly" too. Another load off my mind. Not.

Ten hours of new video going up onto YouTube every minute. No idea what that actually means in monetization, but it's a great stat for future presentation porn. Whoa, and Dunkin' Donuts uses YouTube.

Back later. Am now on a plane and incommunicado for next hour. Feel free to time Mary Meeker in my absence.

Why Was Everyone Wrong-sided on Google?

Pretty much everyone thought Google would miss tonight. And more than half of those people thought Google would, at least implicitly, guide down.

Why was everyone wrong-sided on Google? Here are some possible explanations:

  • Comscore data had people convinced that first-quarter paid click data was disastrous
  • It just made sense that online ad spending would be cut, especially given financial services dependency, and Google has to be hurt if/when that happens
  • Google missed (sort of last quarter), and everyone assumed the wheel had come off and stayed off

I lean to the first bullet: Blame Comscore. As some are pointing out, and as Comscore's aftermarket weakness is showing, this is turning into an acid test for Comscore -- and it's failing.