I can confirm that neither of the NYC apple stores had an iphone in sight today. I'm hoping for option three.

Two factors working together:

1) Overseas demand for iPhones is very high. Low dollar provides a prime catalyst for clearing out inventory. Don't, for a second, underestimate the ability of resellers to wreak havoc on mobile phone stocks, especially when you talk international.

2) AAPL slowing production readying for 3G so that there isn't a glut of 'old' iphones in stock to be fire-sold when 3G launches.

Being intimately familiar w/ the mobile market, option #1 is probably 60% of the factor.

4) The iPhone is too good for us. Apple will stop making them until we improve our attitude.

I agree with Chris.

Does the FCC need to approve a 3G upgrade of the iPhone? Or is it waived because the spectrum use is the same as the 2G. The FCC discloses all tested devices - we would see it in advance and there is nothing Apple can do to hide this.

Bugs Meany?

Andrew has a great (and overlooked) point. The FCC has to approve ALL devices that enter the spectrum. A 3G 'modification' is a different radio and therefore must be resubmitted for certification. Unless the original specification included both a regular & 3G radio.

That being said, there are numerous cases where phones / devices 'slide through' the FCC without people noticing. Hard to imagine in this case, but stranger things have happened.

I am pretty sure they can ask for confidentiality from the FCC. I think it's wishful thinking though (by me included) to think its coming out already. But boy that would be great.

On the point about supplies going to international markets. I didn't think the Iphone was multiband. i.e. its GSM but I don't think they can be used in Europe etc where the frequency itself is different.

Are you guys kidding me?
-This is the issue. Demand for iPhones outside the United States is out of control and has reached the point where it has started to impact normalized supply chain projections.

What's driving this?
1. Free, out-of the box, GUI-based unlock solutions
2. A large, very organized procurement mechanism for iPhones, particularly into Russia and China.
3. Proliferation of Wi-Fi penetration and the recognition that in GSM countries, iPhone works simply and well enough.
4. The iPhone is really cheap to emergingh market customers and a cheap US dollar makes it an even better deal. At 499, 16GB iPhone costs 12,000 Rubles. A 8GB Nokia N95 costs $815 or 20,000 Rubles.
5. Zero compatibility issues on GSM Networks. I have used my iPhone with SIM cards from 32 different networks in Europe and developing countries. It works seamlessly because it is a tri-band GSM phone.

To give you an idea of international demand; There are Nigerian people shipping more than 500 phones a week from New York and Nigeria is a third world country.

Russia 2000-4000 phones/week
China 4000 -6000 phones/ week
Demand from Europe is slower but still significant, averaging anything from 2000 -3000 units/week from New York and other big cities with international airports. Now, not all the phones shipped from New York are bought in NYC but the export pattern is clear and very strong.

Conservatively speaking, something is sucking 10,000-15,000 iPhones/week out of the United States. If this phenomenon is coinciding with steadily growing adoption among US customers, suddenly the slack Apple had is drying up.

Tantrum is right.
I tried buying two of them in SF two weeks ago.
Sold out, so I bought them online and had them shipped to my brother, who promptly shipped them to me in Hong Kong. Hottest device in Hong Kong, with a 33% mark up if unlocked relative to US prices. (US$500 in the US vs. US$665 in Hong Kong). As most flights from China are to the west coast - Vancouver, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, people are buying multiple units for friends and family and returning with them back to Hong Kong, China and the rest of Asia.

Supposedly 1 million iPhones have been sold with no corresponding subcription to phone services. That's because they're being sold to countries around the world that don't have phone services agreements.

Funny enough, I tracked my phones and they were shipped from Shenzhen,China to the US, where I had them shipped back to Hong Kong, a mere 20 miles from where they were orignially shipped from!

One further point. The local phone companies will have less incentive to partner with Apple as time goes on, as more people procure iPhones via the indirect route, dampening future demand for phones and switching to the partner phone company.

Tantrum is wrong. US iphones don't work in most international markets and many of them don't even have wifi.

Mark, "US" iPhones are GSM cellphones first, and only temporarily locked to the US market, until you download a single piece of software and press a single button. They then go back to being GSM cellphones, which will work anywhere there is a GSM carrier (e.g., almost everywhere).

As for the "lack" of WiFi abroad, take a look at the coverage of Moscow by a single commercial WISP (wireless, e.g. WiFi ISP):

http://www.goldenwifi.ru/en/where/

Tantrum, thanks for the insight.

Greg,

That's not quite correct. They are not locked to the US market--just a US carrier, ATT.

But, just because the air interface is GSM doesn't mean that the radio is the same since every country has different allocations for PCS spectrum. Some put it at 1.9 some put it at 900 or somewhere else entirely. So a radio for one country won't necessarily roam to another even if
they are both GSM.

Air interface is half the equation--the other half is what frequency is it being broadcast on. Think of having an FM radio that can only tune to 100-103...its pretty useless if fm stations only broadcast below 100 even tho its an fm broadcast.

And some countries do have WiFi in major cities but it's just not widesprpead enough to be the sole reason for mass imports.

It's more than likely a component shortage..not mass re importation to Nigeria as some here have proposed.

If iPhones are being sucked up for exportation, I find it plausible. If it's a component shortage, which one?

As for the frequencies: iPhone is quad band (http://www.apple.com/iphone/specs.html). Remember to turn off the e-mail checking when going overseas, or you're paying data roaming rates.

Some features may not work (like the voice mail listing). I personally hope the 3G phones are coming, with built in GPS. To sneak it past the FCC watchers, could Apple have have it tested under the contract manufacturers name?

this happens quite often with new samsung phones in the korean local market.

it's a marketing spoof to drive up more anticipation and demand. it has quite a strong psychological affect. the more they keep customers waiting the more impact it has on sales and prestige. they have the phones in stock.

Tantrum was right

http://tinyurl.com/2bn4j4

Bloomberg reports 250,000 phones in Russia, 400,000 in China.
And yes, they do work here in HK and in China. So no problem here for the 200 million chinese who own mobile phones.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aLut8iOUmjBw&refer=home

Mark:
I am yet to encounter a GSM network around the world on which iPhone does not work. Perhaps you don't quite appreciate the level of standardization inherent in GSM internationally, especially when compared to the hodge-podge of incompatible mobile standards available in the US.

iPhone is a quad-band GSM phone, meaning that it supports all four major GSM frequency bands, 850 and 1900 MHz bands which are used in the Americas, and 900 / 1800 MHz bands used in most other parts of the world, making it compatible with all major GSM networks worldwide.