As a regular exercise, I like to ask myself to come up with a list of things that I currently believe, but there is a higher than average chance I’m wrong about. It’s always a good exercise.
- The subprime reset damage in 2008 will be less than most people think
- The current recession — yes, we’re in a recession — will end in the second quarter
- We are going to hear chatter about a double-dip recession by the fourth quarter of this year
- Yahoo will get bought by Microsoft
- Barry Ritholz is a perma-bear
- Blogs matter
- Interest rates won’t rise in the second half as fast as the Fed might like
- The BRIC trade is over
Etc. etc. Feel free to add in your own.