Tell Me Something You’re Wrong About

As a regular exercise, I like to ask myself to come up with a list of things that I currently believe, but there is a higher than average chance I’m wrong about. It’s always a good exercise.

Some examples:

  • The subprime reset damage in 2008 will be less than most people think
  • The current recession — yes, we’re in a recession — will end in the second quarter
  • We are going to hear chatter about a double-dip recession by the fourth quarter of this year
  • Yahoo will get bought by Microsoft
  • Barry Ritholz is a perma-bear
  • Blogs matter
  • Interest rates won’t rise in the second half as fast as the Fed might like
  • The BRIC trade is over

Etc. etc. Feel free to add in your own.


  1. What the heck, here goes…
    – My next car will be electric.
    – The DoD will eventually figure out how to buy stuff from other than the big five; and not get locked in.
    – Open Source is about Free; but like a lot of revolutions it can enslave too. In this case in no-leverage services hell (note product-penetration-equivalent open source market caps).
    – Twitter is like a thinly traded stock. Lots of signal transfer but to a very small pool. Blogs too. They don’t really set the “idea price.”
    – In less than 50 years it will be useful to have friends who are Amish or Hackers, or both; so you can grow your own food while going all MacGyver and whatever on old junk.
    – Post-Jeb Florida will eventually get solar religion like a sunny Germany, but FP&L will push it to avoid new capital projects.
    – Obama will win in November but won’t bring the troops home.

  2. The dollar is at it’s low?
    If you need an uber-bear at least use Nouriel Roubini, though it would help if he weren’t as accurate as he has been.

  3. Al Gore will run for a third term as Vice President

  4. Something I’m wrong about…..
    The housing market has bottomed out.
    Alan Greenspan is a genius.
    43 is the best president we’ve ever had?

  5. That Obama already has the nomination locked up.

  6. Paul Kedrosky says:

    Right, But they’re supposed to be things you actually believe. Do you really believe those things?

  7. Hmm…
    1. Oil prices are being supported by traders, not real economic demand, and this tide will go out sooner and more quickly than is widely expected.
    2. Major difference between 1988 Japan and 2008 China: Economic bust will cause China to become belligerent.
    3. Climate change will actually increase the total amount of naturally available fresh water on Earth (warmer air holds more water), alleviating at least one major potential problem facing mankind in the next century.

  8. 1. The great Ag trade will unwind before the end of summer
    2. Meredith Whitney will become irrelevant.
    3. Brazil’s stock market will lose 1/2 of it’s value by year end.
    4. S&P will be positive 10% by year end.
    5. Phoenix Suns NBA Champions

  9. Higher than average chance I’m wrong? How do you go over 100%?
    Seriously…an Obama presidency will help heal the US.
    And with you, PK, blogs matter.

  10. Vijay Veerachandran says:

    Emerging markets are decoupled from US slump. Sigh,,

  11. try using Gott’s theorom to challenge the duration of whatever it is you believe. Change is a matter of when, not if.

  12. S&P closes year over 1650
    Gold closes year at $750
    BRICs funds up 30% at end of year
    Oil closes year at $105.
    Hundreds more hedge funds go bust by end of the year.

  13. Barry Ritholz is humble?