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March 20, 2008
It's Not Just You: The Market is Careening Around
Whatever happened to a normal day on the markets? Moves of 1-2%, in either direction, are newly as common as moves one-quarter that size used to be, or at least is feels that way. Trust the good people at Bespoke to put some data behind the question:
Yup, it's not just you/me. The market is careening around like an over-medicated Hollywood actor on Sunset. Good to know -- because I was worried it was just me getting older and more nervous.
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I think the individual is running for the sidelines and this leaves the program taders from the big investment houses to game the markets. The houses set up whichever way and then hit the program
My experience is that, in general, moves like this tend to coincide with intermediate to longer term bottoms in the market. You've got a lot of weaker portfolio managers that are under pressure to eliminate, or at least rebalance some of the "obvious" risk in their portfolios because of internal and/or external pressure.
This resulting process of weak hands transferring positions to strong hands (and the relatively large size of the positions) tends to dramatically magnify short term swings, especially during periods when you've got a lot of guys moving big positions in individual names.









I have been feeling a little dizzy lately. At least I know what to tell the doc now.
Seriously though, I think as ETFs continue to proliferate and overtake the mutual fund industry, intraday volatility will be continue to be higher than ever before in the past. Simply because you and I can now move our $$ around from sector to sector just as easily as a hedge fund.