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March 18, 2008
Fed Futures Hazy. Please Ask Later.
Checking the Cleveland Fed's chart for the likely Fed Funds cut today, and it's like a spaghetti incident: A mish-mash of wild-changing probabilities for each of the various possible rate cuts today, with no-one seemingly having any idea any more what the hell is going to happen, or what they want to happen, for that matter.
Granted, a 100-basis-points cut looks like the current favorite, but that particular ditty was at 10% likelihood a few days ago, so don't expect it to stay in heavy probabilistic rotation for long. After all, 50-basis-points is only slightly behind 100, and a staggering 150-basis-points cut is rising straight outta nowhere.
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