How about by May? By September, I'm betting they are higher. I'd be surprised if the trend was down all the way through September, though the odds of a fifth year of energy outperformance historically are something like 2%. How about the Fed cuts 25 tomorrow and says the market has all the liquidity it needs now and urges a stronger dollar,or at least a stable dollar. Then you could have a quick rundown on the commodities. They're all overbought now anyway.

1:6?

I just don't see how the dollar strengthens from here We have massive trade deficits, spending the most we've ever each month, and the govn't is taking on massive counter party risk. How does a currency strengthen with this against it?

Been watching oil for a while. Tim Evans is the Wrong Way Corrigan of oil analysts. He has almost no idea what he's talking about.

That said, oil doesn't belong above $100 right now, and should probably be at $85-90.

Oil is in a secular bull market driven by global demand, oil "should" be exactly where it's at. Unless China and India revert to the stone age, we'll see $200 oil before $70.

I'd bet sooner than Sept for sure. The real question is now that refiners have conditioned us to pay $3.50'ish at the pump, will gas prices go down if oil falls be a third or more?

Tim Evans is a fade if I've ever seen one. He is almost always wrong.

If oil comes anywhere near 70, I'd buy as much as you can.