« linkfest 03/12/08: Brazilian Economy | Main | Developing Economies and the History Trap »
Latest Stories
- Meetings, Meetings
- Infineon and the iPhone
- Make Money Fast!!! CSCO Roolz! etc.
- The (Further) Politicization of the Fed
- Figuring Out the Impact of Default Likelihood on Default
March 12, 2008
Google: Doom! Boom! Doom! Boom!
After hitting 52-week lows in what was becoming a predictable pattern, Google has bounded higher in the last two trading sessions. Trading at $445.90, GOOG is now 8% above its low set intrasession on Monday. Nice move.
So, is it time for GOOG gloom or boom, or what?
Well, the current move is largely technical, with the stock and tech sector having been over-pounded of late. I said as much here and over on Twitter, so I can't say I'm surprised, because I'm not. The preceding said, is Google out of the woods on the quarter? Far from it. While this is likely to be Google's weakest quarter this year, there remains a considerably higher probability of a miss this quarter than the consensus on the stock would suggest.
Anecdotally, by the way, I'm heading from various people in the ad business in the last few weeks that ad buying (and quality/CPMs) are down. I'm not seeing this yet on my own site, but I have heard it from a number of people whose ad inventories are much, much larger than my own.
Sphere It
| 
Digg it
| 
Bookmark it
| 
Stumble it
Ha! Moi, addicted to change? Say it ain't so.
Anyway, I was exaggerating to make a point: Tech stocks are rebounding strongly this week from Monday lows, and that is likely apropos of nothing other than traders looking (technically) for something to do. I think that's newsworthy -- a big short-term move is almost always news -- even if I think worrying about the day-to-day moves Google, or any high-volatility stock, is silly and self-refuting.
nothing to do with the EU approval of the Doubleclick deal then?
Paul, did you ever consider that it's really just you (and the 9 other bloggers who wish they were you) that are obsessed with the short term volatility of Google?
I mean, for most people, a stock that's up a minimum of 400% in 3.5 years is rather ok. Sky not falling, actually.
I think this is some modern tendency / addiction to change, and you are a poster child for it. Remember the Gore / Bush election aftermath? Every day for 3 months, there was a reason to wake up early and read the web for the latest development.
Now people who are addicted to that habit just accept any changing variable as obsession worthy.
Maybe the syndrome could be named after you: Kedroskyosis?