March 2008
I know, I know, magazine/newspaper contrarian cover indicators are passe, but still ... this overdone one from The Independent has to be worth something, doesn't it? [Update] Good, empirically-minded takedown of the article's argument here....
Interesting to see that activist hedge fund Pardus Capital is being forced to stop redemptions. The firm has positions in the Delta Airlines, United Airlines, and Atos Origin, and on Monday it apparently told investors couldn't (temporarily) have their money...
As a regular exercise, I like to ask myself to come up with a list of things that I currently believe, but there is a higher than average chance I'm wrong about. It's always a good exercise. Some examples: The...
Does being in the right social network mean an easier time getting credit? Good question. An interesting new paper looks whether Freemasons favor one another with loans: Using a unique data set of 410 companies quoted on the London Stock...
Here is a poster-child for how hot sectors don't always translate into hot stocks: The GPS business is booming, with such location devices being the hot product this past Christmas, and lots of heat, but sector kingpin Garmin is touching...
It's easy to take potshots at the Paulson plan, and I haven't resisted doing that, especially its embrace of new regulations, but is there anything to like about it? Sure. It's nice to see an attempt to harmonize a system...
The wet weather records set in March of 2008 have me thinking at least as much about global wetting as about global warming: Record or near record precipitation occurred in a swath from eastern Texas into the Ohio Valley and...
With the Brazilian real having its first monthly decline against the U.S. dollar since November, and BRIC (Brazil/Russia/India/China) markets all having a bad run -- the Shanghai Composite is off 34% this year -- I thought it timely to take...
At an admittedly cursory first read, my initial reaction to the Treasury plan to save us all from financial markets is to short housing and insurance. Those are the two main areas that will a new and heavier regulatory burden....
Tom Perkins of Kleiner Perkins fame has his mega-super-yacht Maltese Falcon for sale. Launched only in the summer of 2006, and nos being sold for $166m or so, this is not going be a 10x exit for the former venture...
Given some of their nationals' fondness for financial scams, there is something blackly comedic -- and possibly even downright appropriate -- about a letter from someone in Nigeria to the New York Times purporting to explain the U.S.'s subprime/credit issues....
Everyone is painfully familiar with economist JM Keynes's rip on sanguine sorts who opine that in the long run we'll all be okay. After all, as he famously said, in the long run we're all dead. Most people, however, don't...
Here is a sneak peek at some links from my weekly Weekend Reading column from over at TheStreet.com: The next bubble: Business books about the subprime/credit bubble (Los Angeles Times) MIT solar startup aims to beat coal on price (EETimes)...
Quote of the day comes from a Euromoney piece on how hedge funds aren't as bad as you think they are: The worst month for hedge funds has been Long-Term Capital Management (-7%), the worst day for equity has been...
Old joke, but still amusing -- and timely: What’s the difference between a stockbroker and a pigeon? A pigeon can still leave a deposit on a Porsche. [via Prieur]...
Emptying my burgeoning browser tabs: Rumors of hedge funds' demise are overrated (Euromoney) Vacation Home Sales and Prices Tumble as Buyers Wait (Bloomberg.com) The Effect of the Uptick Rule on Spreads, Depths, and Short Sale Prices (SSRN) Fed Leaders Ponder...
Just noticed that it's snowing up in Vancouver. This is awfully late. Check the live picture:...
In meetings most of today, so postings will likely be light. Behave yourselves....
Whoops, Harvard Endowment has hired a new CIO. As I have said in the past, that is a thankless position, a stepping stone to other things, which is precisely what happened to the position's last holder, Mohamed El-Erian, who quickly...
Darn, those Fed officials are agreeable folks. Doesn't matter what the decision is, everyone is in (generally) unanimous agreement. Inflation? Rate cuts? Disinflation? Rate increases? We agree! We agree again! Or do they. A new paper makes the case that...
Had interesting conversations today with a number of people about leverage in investing, and its role and value in future. The consensus: Leverage will carry a lower multiple going forward, with it important to determine the source of returns, and...
The WSJ has a copy of Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks' latest letter to shareholders. Overall, it's about what you expect from Marks: smart and bearish stuff, with lots of data, some hard rights and uppercuts, and a general sense, of...
Senator Chris Dodd (D.-CT), Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, gave comments yesterday in an NPR interview on the Fed, regulation of investment banking, etc. that are well worth listening to. Check them here. The gist: Dodd thinks more regulation...
I'm co-hosting CNBC's The Call on Tuesday from 11am to noon EST. If anyone has any pressing subjects that they think should be part of the hour, feel free to let me know. And yes, my hair is out as...
You can't read a story, watch CNBC, or even hang out at Metafilter these without hearing endlessly about moral hazard. The idea, in essence, is that by preventing people from feeling the painful consequences of their errors you prevent them...
About a year ago I cited a study showing the weak -- okay, nonexistent -- connection between wealth and intelligence. Here is the key chart from that study: Just this week, however, I ran across a new, related study, one...
Emptying my burgeoning browser tabs of some things others may find interesting: Intelligence and stock trading performance: Whoa, dumber isn't better? (SSRN) Adobe launches online Photoshop (Adobe) Research Roundup: US Airline Industry (Research Roundup) Cramer Interviews Anadarko Petroleum CEO (TheStreet...
Say home prices have fallen 20% to date, and you expect them to fall another 10%. How much will they have fallen in total? A guest just now on CNBC just said, in passing, that would make for a 30%...
Unless I'm missing something, Oracle has missed in afterhours. Consensus earnings estimate was $0.30 and the company delivered $0.26. Revenue is a little light too. Stock is down 8% in late trading. I feel better about my ORCL bearishness this...
Pace my earlier "Shine on Your Crazy Dimon" post on the criticisms and complaints JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is getting for his Bear Stearns deal, I couldn't help myself from rewriting the lyrics to the Pink Floyd song. Here you...
Interesting to check what's happening live in various employment sectors, at least as measured by recruiting efforts. You can get a good first cut on that data via SimplyHired, a job search engine that has a nice feature making it...
On the way in from doing a CNBC spot early (early) this morning I heard a Cato Institute commentator on NPR suggest that critics shouldn't be blaming ex- Fed chair Alan Greenspan for inflating a bubble. Better, he argued, would...
There is a heretofore unexamined connection between big league corporate mergers & acquisitions and sex. Read on for Feedburner founder Dick Costolo's perspective today: M&A works in much the same way that 14 yr olds talk about sex. "do you...
Some nifty data in a new report on shrinking hedge fund returns over time. The following figure shows how alpha has leaked out of U.S. hedge fund over the last 15 years. It compares how hedge funds have done over...
I'm on CNBC Squawk Box tomorrow at 7:30am talking Oracle earnings....
What are people's favorite semi-phonetic stock tickers? You know, like TXN (pronounced "Texan"), GOOG, etc....
China's planned 97 airports over the next 12 years works out an airport every 1.5 months. Impressive stuff. More here....
I would love to find some decent survey research on this question: How many major entrepreneurs can you name? I'm guessing most people can name 1-2 at most, and none at all if you net out Bill Gates, Steve Jobs,...
Oooh, Fortune says I'm a "must read". That and a dollar, etc., of course. Nevertheless, nice of them to say....
Only two tech companies that I track are within 5% of their 52-week lows: TI and IFX. That is, of course, way up from 30% of the tech pack that were hovering at those levels ten days ago. Tech has...
Chart of the day is a nice one from Foreign Policy comparing the number of credit cards per person, per country around the world:...
Emptying my burgeoning browsers tabs with some links others may found interesting: Bear Bid Was 'Fair' at $2 and $10 (WSJ.com) Peter Bernstein on the transformation of financial markets (Frontline) Credit cards and the plastic revolution (Foreign Policy) China passes...
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is taking criticism in some quarters for quintupling his company's bid for Bear Stearns. He is everything Wall Street wants in a leader -- a visionary who also knows how business is practiced in the trenches....
Some eye-opening data showing the multi-decade collapse in viewership for evening network TV news. About the only surprise, at least for those of us that haven't watch such programming in ages, is that it still exists at all. [via Slate]...
Been a busy day of travel and meetings, so apologies for not having much here. Promise to be back tomorrow, at least intermittently....
Anyone who has been around Wall Street for any time knows that investment banks are ships that leak from the top. So when they start spreading rumors about themselves, a subject about which they know considerably more than their usual...
One of the most interesting talks at the TED conference this year was scientist Craig Venter's. Particularly intriguing, at least to me, was that many people found his presentation unsettling. They didn't like that the first scientist to get wildly...
A sneak peek at some links from my weekly Weekend Reading column over at TheStreet.com. Risk arb update on Bear Stearns/JPMorgan (TheDeal) Megastores are now willing to haggle on price (New York Times) Egg prices are up 23% year-over-year (L.A....
[JARRING CHORD] [The door flies open and Cardinal Ximinez of Spain [Palin] enters, flanked by two junior cardinals. Cardinal Biggles [Jones] has goggles pushed over his forehead. Cardinal Fang [Gilliam] is just Cardinal Fang] Ximinez: NOBODY expects the Spanish...
Quote of the day comes from a Time magazine profile of mega-yacht makers like Sunseeker Yachts. These companies are seeing booming business right now, fueled by oil wealth, industrializing countries, etc. Credit crisis and recession? Pshaw. There are more superrich...
I know I'm supposed to sympathize with the woman in this story today in the Washington Post, but I'm having trouble going all the way. The gist: She bought a house in 2005, and was foreclosed on last March. But...
Great interview/discussion in today's WSJ with Bill Gross of Pimco, and Edward Thorp of Beat the Dealer and Princeton-Newport Partners fame. Here is an excerpt: WSJ: What's your assessment of the state of hedge funds today? Mr. Thorp: In the...
My friend Bill sent the following pictures to me today from a Simon Properties premium outlet mall in the New York City area. As he said to me, on this holiday shopping weekend lines were everywhere, mostly, however, Europeans who...
Some of these Bear Stearns items at Ebay are turning into hot commodities. Too bad Bear execs didn't think of declaring bankruptcy and descending into memorabilia sales before JPMorgan showed up. They could have raised $235-million -- JPM's purchase price...
This paper's result makes me think we need to augment the martini model of venture investing with a martini and olive model: We examine the impact of business angels on 182 Series A financings and subsequent company outcomes. Our studied...
Quote of the day (so far) goes to S&P in its new report downgrading Lehman's (and Goldman's) credit rating. S&P said Lehman has a stable base of funding and strong fundamentals, but "could suffer severely if there was an adverse...
Some of my favorite Bear Stearns memorabilia currently for sale on Ebay: Cafeteria Card Stock Certificate Last structured products research report...
I just realized that this year marks the 25th anniversary of the release of one of my favorite novels: Mark Helprin's Winter's Tale. Unlike most of Helprin's sometimes over-moralizing and politically-fueled writing, this was wide-eyed Americana infused by the...
Judging by a just-released Washington Post interview, ex-Fed chair Alan Greenspan has gone mad. There is an upside, of course, in that he has delivered the quote of the year so far. Here is Alan, talking in an interview...
How do you structure a business partnership? I get asked that question all the time, so now I have somewhere to point: This useful discussion over at Ask Metafilter....
I have the best readers out there. I'm not prone to idle praise, but if you thought the discussion that flowed from my "Futures" post here yesterday was thought-provoking and interesting, you should see my email inbox. I am touched...
Quote of the day comes from an analyst talking about Verizon's monster bid to take the lion's share of spectrum in the just-completed C-block wireless auction: This keeps the number of national competitors to a minimum and will help allow...
Playing with Auto-Stitch software, I pulled together the following panorama shot from inside a lovely old Rio de Janeiro restaurant at which I ate lunch last week. For some reason a few of the pictures -- mostly from behind me...
Whatever happened to a normal day on the markets? Moves of 1-2%, in either direction, are newly as common as moves one-quarter that size used to be, or at least is feels that way. Trust the good people at Bespoke...
Fascinating results from a new research paper: What is good for big business need not generally advance a country's overall economy. Big business turnover correlates with rising income, productivity, and (in high income countries) faster capital accumulation; consistent with Schumpeter's...
I just read the galley proof of a new article on investing from a major U.S. magazine wherein the author conceded that he had never heard of index funds. Unbelievable. Run. Hide. We're all going to die....
Okay, as I just said to my friend Barry Ritholtz in an IM, when the economically adrift Esquire does a lengthy interview with the uber-bearishrealist Mr. Ritholtz that's gotta be a great sign of where we're at in the down...
Another of my favorite talks from this year's TED conference is now up. Writer Dave Eggers explaining -- in typically elliptical and digressive fashion -- his creation of tutoring centers around the U.S. Great stuff. Makes you feel like you're...
Ex-Fed chair Paul Volcker talking on Charlie Rose about the Fed's recent actions. Well worth watching....
People don't think retirement will happen to them. That's my conclusion in scanning some harrowing stuff from a new study on whether people know how much money they need to retire. I was particularly taken by this chart showing the...
Unburdening myself, as I apparently am, of things that are on my mind, here is something else: Why does everyone who wants to break into the venture business immediately gravitate toward raising a fund to commercialize university technologies? Granted, I...
I'm offline today, mostly spending overdue time with my kids after too much recent travel. Perhaps unsurprisingly, offline time is leading to inward thoughts, which has led to this post, which is, in turn, an unabashed personal digression -- which...
The guilty secret of many market analysts is that Matt Drudge breaks business stories. I often see stories first there, which is a constant source of surprise to people -- and it feels like it is increasingly the case. So,...
Some deliriously mad stuff went on in California mortgage scams recently busted up by the AG office: If consumers questioned the paperwork she tried to get them to sign, Paulette Pony would falsely represent to consumers that her boss, often...
Oh, this will settle things down quickly -- not. The SEC has opened an inquiry into possible manipulation of Bear Stears stock by hedge-fund short-sellers spreading rumors about the company's solvency. The Securities and Exchange Commission probe is focusing on...
It's Tuesday, so that means it's time for the Tuesday Night Guide to Financial Criminality: Things to watch for if you want to avoid being caught, Spitzer-style, by anti-money-laundering technology (TR) JPMorgan's confidential advice to Barry Diller on how to...
Okay, slumming a bit tonight and watching Die Hard (again). It remains the source of one of the best movie lines ever: Dwayne: [Watching as FBI helicopter is destroyed] We're gonna need some more FBI guys, I guess....
I wrote here a while back about what has really been happening over the last few months is a run on the shadow banking system, a kind of non-bank bank run. If that's true, you can see why some are...
Whoa, Bear Stearns is on Ebay (via Photoshop, of course): [via Barry]...
The Fed has delivered a 75-bps cut to 2.25%, which splits the difference between the two most likely scenarios from the Cleveland Fed. Ben Bernanke has compromised, like any good academic chair should. But this strikes me as somewhat confused....
Checking the Cleveland Fed's chart for the likely Fed Funds cut today, and it's like a spaghetti incident: A mish-mash of wild-changing probabilities for each of the various possible rate cuts today, with no-one seemingly having any idea any more...
Explaining why Bear Stearns is trading at $7 today despite a $2 deal from JPMorgan has become a cottage industry. After all, there is the JPM price, of course, and then there is the provision in the deal that...
The cost of insuring debt on some U.S. banks is higher than the cost of doing same for many third-world countries. Consider the spread on bank credit-default swaps, with Lehman currently more expensive to insure than Nigerian debt. But that's...
One of the hallmarks of the bottom of financial crises is that something major breaks in the market. Usually that takes the form of a major firm, but it can be others. The following chart from BCA makes the point...
Typical of most such studies, but always amusing to see, a new Forbes study accidentally shows investors are as delusional as ever. Why? Because most of the high net work investors who responded think their portfolios outperformed the market: Lots...
Here's a thought: Maybe the current frenzy of low-value online ads is creating a generation of online information consumers genetically programmed to be oblivious to online ads. After all, when pages are covered with ads from corner to corner, and...
Two data points make a trend, so I'm intrigued about the re-emergence of corporate venture groups after a long dormancy. Yesterday I heard about a new group out of Canwest, and today I was sent a link about a new...
The WSJ has a tick-tock tonight of how Bear Stearns meltdown began last week, and accelerated into the weekend. It is fascinating stuff, full of juicy details, messed-up moments, and general confusion. Some will find it reassuring in the aggressive...
I was sent this earlier today, and it brought back St. Patrick's Day memories. Danny Boy ... by the inimitable Muppet troika of Animal, Beaker, and, of course, the Swedish Chef....
From today's quote file, something from golfer Steve Stricker on Tiger Woods' sensational win at Bay Hill this weekend, how he's five in a row, and how he could keep on winning this year: "He's got a lot of memories,...
Apparently I'm not the only musing about the outlier scenario of a possible negative price spiral in oil markets. From Bloomberg: "If the U.S. dollar turns higher or if the crude oil market reverses then we have a spiral working...
Quiz question: Rank the following industry sectors in terms of their current discount, largest to smallest, from historical forward price/earnings multiples. As you'll see when I post the real numbers, some definite surprises. Telecom Utilities Materials HealthCare ConsumerStaples Industrials Energy...
Here is the most bullish news I've seen today: Goldman Sachs is muzzling perma-bull Abby Cohen in favor of a someone with a markedly lower target for the S&P 500 this year. Her successor, David Kostin, is calling for a...
People won't take U.S. dollars for exchange because the value is dropping too fast. Sound like any other countries you've heard of? The U.S. dollar's value is dropping so fast against the euro that small currency outlets in Amsterdam are...
Emptying my burgeoning browser tabs: Why this recession will be longer and worse than you think (Portfolio) Rice supplies set to fall to 25-year low (Times) Monthly versus daily data in stock models (SSRN) Lehman sending out email flashes about...
With Bear Stearns investors peeved at the buyout price, lawyers are already out buying Google ads against Bear Stearns' ticker searches. Granted, it won't offset the revenue decline from decreased ad spending by financial services sorts, but it's still remarkable...
Interesting that, at least in the early going, JPMorgan, despite uncertainty over its Bear buy, has been the only material gainer among financials. Here is a live look via Google Spreadsheets: Looking at this another way, you could argue that,...
Funny -- even if somewhat insider-ish -- graphic follows of a chartists' view (complete with Irwin Allen-style collapsing candles) of how tremors are affecting financial markets: [via FT]...
For those of you interested in the car-crash carnage of markets tumbling overseas as things make their way to the U.S. tomorrow, here are some good places: Live Bloomberg TV feed (Bloomberg) Live CNBC TV feed (CNBC) FT's Alphaville (FT)...
I'm sure I'll be adding to this extensively over the next 24 hours, but so far my favorite quote on Bears Stearns being bought for a tenth of what it sold for a week ago, and 1.25% of what it...
In the most bizarre, ill-timed, and poorly considered opinion column I have read in some time, ex- Fed guy Alan Greenspan blames the current meltdown on Richard Thaler. Okay, not Richard Thaler by name, but on behavioral economics, the en...
The Fed is now backstopping this meltdown in a major way. With two actions taken late today, the Fed has officially turned the U.S. government into the counterparty to the U.S. financial system by letting securities dealers borrow directly at...
Slice the $270m JPMorgan just agreed to pay for Bear Stearns any way you want to and still it's a horrible end for a storied brokerage firm. To end up paying $0.25 on the dollar for the company's $1 in...
With Bear Stearns in high-pressure talks this weekend with JPMorgan in an effort to close a buyout deal before markets open tomorrow, there are some ironies afoot. Chief among them? That Bear Stearns, which has been ravaged by over-exposure to...
A sneak peek at some links from my weekly Weekend Reading column over at TheStreet.com: How Bernanke's Fed has abandoned history in its quest to avoid a dire financial future (Bloomberg) Inflation hits popcorn prices (Los Angeles Times) Visa's monster...
My current favorite Bear Stearns quote du jour come from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson today. The preternaturally placid Paulson had this to say about the Bear Stearns bailout: As we have been saying for some time, there are challenges...
Okay, the FT has me wasting time coming up with more fun anagrams for Bears Stearns: Bare Ass Rent Barer Sanest Bears Astern Barest Snare Stabs Nearer Baser Rates Baste Rears...
I was out and utterly off the grid today, which apparently led to the Bear Stearns meltdown. Really sorry about that, especially to my friends at Bear. By way of partial compensation, a quick roundup of some of the better...
NY Times columnist David Pogue has loved the Apple iPhone from launch last year, but he has up a column today that argues the iPhone 2.0 software coming in June is truly transformational -- Blackberry-damaging. The money quote: You’re witnessing...
One more thing before I bug out: I have a theory. Okay, fair enough, I have a lot of theories, but this one has to do with TV weather reports and country trade dynamics. Here you go: You can learn...
Snapped this picture down Ipenama Beach from my hotel room in Rio de Janeiro moments ago. It's a highly distracting view from the desk here when I'm on a board call before running to two outside meetings....
As recently as Monday of this week something like one-third of the tech stocks I actively track here were within 5% of their 52-week lows. Today, not so much. Only two stocks -- Expedia and Infineon -- are still circling...
"We're safe," [Ford] said. "Oh good," said Arthur. "We're in a small galley cabin," said Ford, "in one of the spaceships of the Vogon Constructor Fleet." "Ah," said Arthur, "this is obviously some strange usage of the word 'safe'...
Most provocative financial research I have read in ages goes to Ken French's much-discussed working paper, available as of today at SSRN, on the costs of active investing. How much do investors spend trying to beat the market? I compare...
I visited the Brazilian equivalent of the SEC today in Rio de Janeiro, and here are some things I learned: There has been a thirty-fold increase in trading volume in the last eight years There were 64 IPOs in the...
Mike over at TechCrunch has a partial list of what he says will be Microsoft's proposed nominees to Yahoo's board. They follow: Edward H. Meyer - former CEO, Grey Advertising John Chapple - CEO, Nextel Partners Tom Freston - former...
In (a hot and humid) Rio de Janeiro and out at meetings for most of the day, so postings will likely be light. Try to be nice to each other, and to the markets....
I often cite in presentations statistics about share of ad spending by medium, as well as related stats about how people spend time by medium. Turning to the former first, the following figure nicely lays out the ad spending part...
In the news tonight that the $670m Carlyle Capital fund -- appropriately-named CCC -- is going down under the weight of creditors, there was this helpful quote in a WSJ story: The secret to making money was borrowing massive sums....
Good stuff in a new report from Beverage Digest. A fairly remarkable downturn in the soft drink market is accelerating. Total U.S. sales fell 2.3 percent in 2007, which was worse than the 0.6 percent drop in 2006, which was,...
Now here is something to not be proud of: Aided by tumbling tax receipts in a weakening economy, the U.S. government just set an all-time record for its monthly deficit: The U.S. government turned in a $175.56 billion budget deficit...
My friends at Altos Research have out some great new data on the current trends in the real estate market: The Altos 10-City Composite showed a decline in asking prices of 1.6% over the past three months and continued that...
Proud Dad moment, so feel free to skip over it. My 6-year-old son is newly infatuated with Encyclopedia Brown books -- which his Dad loved as a child too -- and he spontaneously made the following sign this week which...
For my money the best talk at this year's TED conference was Jill Bolte Taylor on what it was like to experience a stroke from the inside as a brain scientist. It was riveting, personal, passionate and deeply moving, truly...
The massive Blackstone IPO last year was an epochal moment along at least three dimensions. First, it was a gigantic IPO, the sixth largest in U.S. history. Second, it represented a near-term market top in private equity. And third, the...
Just a quick snapshot of some site stats here: Since inception, according to Movable Type, I have posted 6,348 entries, and there has been a little over 25,000 comments. On the entries front, assuming 4 minutes per post, which isn't...
Speaking of stocks doing big runs from lows earlier this week, Google isn't alone. Fave of all GPS fan boys, Garmin is up 16% from its lows, and 7.2% today alone. Not bad. And there is new data out today...
I've had some fascinating discussions with entrepreneurs, academics and investors here in Brazil. Among the more interesting things that keeps coming up is that outsiders have generally been much more optimistic than Brazilians about Brazil over the last five years...
After hitting 52-week lows in what was becoming a predictable pattern, Google has bounded higher in the last two trading sessions. Trading at $445.90, GOOG is now 8% above its low set intrasession on Monday. Nice move. So, is it...
Emptying my burgeoning browser tabs of some of my recent economic reading while here in Brazil: Brazil inflation slows for second straight month (Bloomberg.com) Brazil posts record Jan primary budget surplus (Reuters) Brazil unemployment rises for first time in eight...
Eye-popping picture of the Alberta tar sands from space. Truly a scar on the face of planet....
A longer and more ruminative post later, but in all my discussions here in Brazil the thing that comes through most clearly is of a country in a convincing and continuing economic break-out. A transition to a stable democracy combined...
Jim Rogers' CNBC interview today is a classic of its kind. A combative and voluble Rogers goes after the Fed in a major way, arguing that our aversion to recessions, willingness to bail out banks, and general over-confidence in...
For anyone who missed it this weekend, the 60 Minutes profile of Carl Icahn was interesting stuff. Check it here....
One of the most appalling and fascinating aspects of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro here in Brazil are the so-called "favelas". The Brazilian equivalent of a shanty town, these have generally grown up on public land right alongside much...
Granted, the following Google layoffs news is because of the DoubleClick acquisition, but in all the corporate-speak there is something that feels like a kind of augury: As with most mergers, there may be reductions in headcount. We expect these...
Some quick links to empty my burgeoning browser tabs: Is the stock market too high? (Nick Gogerty) Michael Lewis Exposed (Falkenblog) Spitzer's Targets Laughing Silently (Dealbreaker) Amazing Climate Predictions Revealed—Climate Models Reviled (Reason)...
Yeesh, it never ceases to amaze me how little people know about the securities they hold. We have had the auction-rate securities issue building for a couple of weeks -- with some VCs not realizing that some of their portfolio...
A few people have asked, but I'm not taken captive by aliens. Instead I am in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro through Friday, so posting will likely be slow. Or not. You never really know....
Lots of chatter this weekend about where a bottom might be for Google. After all, the stock has weakened largely in anticipation of poor upcoming results, not because it has drastically underformed expectations yet. Let's say, however, the search company...
My financial quote du jour: Rich people as a business model are sensational. - Russ Prince, quoted in Bloomberg...
Here is a sneak peek at some links from my weekly Weekend Reading column over TheStreet.com. Solar energy firms leave waste behind in China (washingtonpost.com) Oil demand is drying up - slightly (S.F. Chronicle) Bill Miller is betting on Countrywide...
There has been lots of cringing in the northeastern U.S. and in eastern Canada this year about the amount of snow that has fallen. So, is the current snow cover -- the amount of snow remaining on the ground --...
Much of my family lives in Ottawa, Canada, and so now and then I like to check a live webcam across the street from Parliament Hill. Mid-winter it can be lovely, with snow all around and the Canadian flag streaming...
Three great, interlocking reads on the changing role of the Fed as lender of last resort: What's Ben doing? (Krugman) Fed repurchase agreement and the Fed as pawnbroker (Waldman) How the Fed is conducting monetary policy on the asset side...
Ran across this Money:Tech 2008 photo tonight of my friend Jim (Cramer) and I working out a few things on-stage. [via Joseph]...
Just for fun: Number of large-cap tech stocks at or near 52-week lows: 11 MSFT DELL EBAY GOOG IFX SNDK BRCM VMW TI EXPE IACI Number of large-cap tech stocks at or near 52-week highs: 0...
Here is a day in the life of a financial services CEO, courtesy of my friend Dick Costolo: 9am Private jet to DC 10am-11am Get yelled at by Henry Waxman 1pm Mmmm, steak! 4pm Martinis with other CEOs 6pm Private...
You know, as much as I want to enjoy this beat-down of financial services CEOs, Oversight Committee Chairman Henry Waxman is driving me nuts. Demanding that Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo explain each of his stock sales, when said stock sales...
I'm sure there will be better photo versions of this moment soon, but this sure felt like instant history. We have financial services CEOs Chuck Prince (Citi), Stan O'Neal (Merrill), Angelo Mozilo (Countrywide), and others all swearing to tell the...
On the one hand you have politicians beating up CEOs over on C-Span, and on the other hand you have Republic and Democrat Presidential contenders chattering non-stop about the economy. Politicians have rediscovered the economy. Oh-oh. Here, from the fascinating...
C-Span is running a live feed of Henry Waxman's Oversight Committee flogging of various financial services CEOs. Good market bottom amusement from typically over-wrought politicians. As a related note, Eleanor Norton (D.) really needs to stop confusing Countrywide CEO Angelo...
Quote du jour is this Pavlov-ian entry from a London hedge fund manager quoted in the FT today: “Every time you buy anything it is worth less the next day,” said one London credit hedge fund manager. “Eventually you stop...
One of the more controversial talks at TED last week turned out to be Craig Venter's about the creation of synthetic life, and its applications. I was absolutely fascinated, but you can judge for yourself:...
Just for fun, here is the live performance (as converted to equity) of various high-profile sovereign wealth fund investments over the last twelve months:...
Interesting new paper out showing how stock picks made money from analysts who attended the same school as the CEO of the firm they were following. Social networks in the stock market were a big subject at Money:Tech, and so...
Most unnerving article I have read in some time on the current turmoil in credit markets. The difference in yields, or spread, on the Bloomberg index for Fannie Mae's current-coupon, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds and 10-year government notes widened about...
In case no-one's paying attention, Google hit new a 52-week low today. It traded down to $432.7, or off 3.3%, which makes for a whopping 41% decline from the November 6th stock peak. Stunning stuff....
Obvious from the live updates at Apple SDK event today that Apple is making major push into RIMM's face. Cited market share data showing it is already at nearly half of RIMM's share of market since year-ago launch, and it...
Marc Faber is always good fun to read and listen to, but he is kind of misnamed. The author of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report is mostly gloom and doom, very little boom, at least not recently. Anywhere, heeeeeeere's...
With the Apple iPhone SDK press briefing coming up in in 15 minutes, does BBC have the first native iPhone app in the wild? Visiting BBC's site via an iPhone today produces the following (screenshot). With the content not playable...
Not bad financial returns for seven years of being a former vice-president: Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore left the White House seven years ago with less than $2 million in assets, including a Virginia home and the family farm...
Extracting data from the web was a major theme at my Money:Tech 2008 conference in New York -- the web is the largest and most interesting database of financial information out there -- so itwas interesting to see that web...
So much for my $100 bid for The Weather Channel. Looks like there are more people than me that want it, with the NY Times reporting today a lengthy list of better-capitalized companies than me who are in the bidding...
Investor Peter Lynch has issued a statement on the whole dwarf-tossing settlement at Fidelity: "Today I settled an administrative proceeding with the SEC. In asking the Fidelity equity trading desk for occasional help locating tickets, I never intended to do...
With news this morning that mega-investor Carlyle Group got a margin call -- it had to put up more capital -- on its bond fund, that doesn't leave much room on the even larger side for funds that will get...
This settlement today in the longstanding litigation involving payment for order flow at Fidelity in the Peter Lynch era is great fun to read. You don't see as many stories about dwarf tossing, uber-investors, and strip clubs as you should....
The WSJ has a piece today talking about mounting insider selling at Google. No surprise, given the company's status as a bubble baby that employees are selling in droves at the first major downturn in the company's stock. Google insiders...
Earlier today Cisco's John Chambers delivered one of his usual up-with-us sweet nothings, saying that he is increasingly comfortable with Cisco's long-term growth rate. That's nice. Too bad that we're paying 18x earnings for 11% year-over-year growth....
The Twitter-ing Bernanke has this to say today about Henry Paulson's House testimony this morning: benbernanke alright, paulson's back to burning me up today. i need to put a bell on him, like a runaway cow. Ha!...
I'm on CNBC Power Lunch today at 1:20 EST. Talking tech stocks -- Apple, Google, and Intel, specifically -- so feel free to remind me here why things are completely other than what they seem on these tickers....
From a new paper in an upcoming issue of the Journal of Finance Economics. It's doubly funny because of the dry way in which these loopy findings are reported about public company board composition: First, when commercial bankers enter boards,...
Catching up and emptying my burgeoning browser tabs and inbox: Google and the Case of the Missing Clicks (Many Niches) Using Star Language to Connect AT&T’s Call to a Hollywood/Silicon Valley Venture (Wall Street Weather) Foreclosure-proof Homeowners (The Big Picture)...
I get emails all the time telling me that I'm #1 in this list of financial blogs, #3 in that one, and so on. My response is always the same: That's nice, but I'd rather you bought me. But no-one...
Interesting data out on the first decline in recent history in "official" calling minutes between China and Taiwan. There were 282.2 million voice communication calls from China to Taiwan with a total use time of 784.8 million minutes in 2007,...
Hard not to notice the carnage among the four horsemen of technology: Google, Amazon, Research in Motion, and Apple. Here is the latest "lossage" data from my friend Eric over at Barron's: Apple fell $4.76, or 3.8%, to $120.26. Google...
The latest ComscoreHitwise [ed. my bad] data is out, and Google is still merrily stomping its supposed search competitors into the dirt. The combined share of the next three largest competitors -- Ask, Microsoft, and Yahoo -- has fallen 300...
As I was driving in to CNBC this morning I heard an NPR spot talking about Ben Bernanke's over-communication problem. Sometimes, the piece pointed out, we're better off knowing less about the Fed's every change of heart, waking mood, macroeconomic...
For those of you with one of those newfangled "tele-vision" things, I'm on CNBC tomorrow at 8:15am talking tech cyclicality....
Ex-CNBC guy Eric Bolling's move to Fox is now apparently official. Fox Business Network has put out a press release today trumpeting his arrival, which must mean the legal shenanigans among Fox, Bolling, and CNBC are over....
One month ago Microsoft announced its unsolicited bid for Yahoo. It pegged the bid at the then-effective price of $31, but it also put it at a specific ratio of Microsoft to Yahoo shares. If you used the ratio the...
Any readers at the big ETech conference this week in San Diego? I'll be in and out, but it's always good to meet my readers, who are, of course, nothing if not people doing interesting things....
Venezuelan President Huge Chavez just can't seem to stop himself from doing stuff that gooses oil prices higher: Tensions between the radical government of Venezuela and pro-US Colombia reached new heights on Sunday after Hugo Chávez apparently ordered the mobilisation...
Here is the financial quote du jour. It comes from a hedge fund manager who is (rightly) pissed that such funds can't market their services, open a normal website, etc., and so he is suing the SEC. “We want to...
In case folks hadn't noticed, there still extensive renovations going on here. Most things work, but some things don't, and so feel free to let me know if you notice any paintings askew or taps left on, metaphorically speaking. In...
Here is a sneak peek at some links from my weekly Weekend Reading column over at TheStreet.com. Email scandal over Microsoft's 'botched' dealings with Intel, HP (SiliconValley.com) NY Times death watch, via Marc Andreessen (Fortune) Why nobody in Washington wants...
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