Lots of people messaging me tonight, whether via email or on Twitter, everyone watching the remarkable market declines going on in Asian markets right now. Some highlights:
- Worst two-day decline on Japanese markets in more than a decade
- Emerging markets getting crushed, with Jakarta off 9%
- India’s Sensex was halted, down 11.5%, re-opened 20 minutes or so later, and then speedily trimmed losses to 3% or so
- U.S. treasures are zooming upward
- Dow futures still showing 500-point-ish loss on the open tomorrow, but that’s subject to oodles of change.
Couple quick screenshots from CNBC Asia (which is playing creepy horror music into and out of breaks):
Overall, while these are big numbers, the U.S. has had a habit lately of acting with one-way correlation. In other words, its declines can spook other markets, but the reverse has not been anywhere near uniformly true. So, while I expect a decline on the opening tomorrow, it is far from a foregone conclusion that we spend the rest of the day in free-fall.
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Hey Paul, it’s a buying opportunity
Seriously, what do you think the effect on the dollar will be?
Hey Jeff
Generally speaking, I think this will continue to be good for the U.S. dollar, at least for the next few months. Unwinding the carry trade, flight to quality, investors dropping out of emerging markets — all of these are going to drive the dollar, at least a little.
yup the Indian markets are in a full fledged sell-off. Markets got halted 35 seconds into the Tuesday trading session after falling 10%. currently they are off “only” 5%, but that can change on a dime.