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January 28, 2008
The Anasazi in Temecula
This used to be real estate
Now it's only fields and trees
Where, where is the town
Now, it's nothing but flowers
- "Nothing but Flowers", by Talking Heads
Almost two thousand years ago the Anasazi people lived in the Four Corners area of the southwestern U.S. Somewhere near 490 A.D. they established permanent settlements in that arid region, steadily developing a culture, and even a viable economy. And then, almost 1,000 years later, in what is still something of a mystery, the Anasazi disappeared.
Some people think it was struggles with warring neighboring tribes that caused their disappearance. While that is possible, it seems increasingly likely the cause was an over-large settlement and a change in climate. The Anasazi established themselves in that desert region during a period of peak rainfall, and that precipitation decreased significantly over the next few hundred years. As a result, by that argument, the Anasazi steadily moved away, leaving the old and the infirm behind with the hillside caves and potteries.
I got to thinking about the Anasazi while driving from San Diego to Palm Desert today. North of San Diego, a little southeast of Los Angeles, there is a city called Temecula. It has grown incredibly over the last 20 years, largely with people priced out of the L.A. and Orange County (and even San Diego) markets buying real estate there, and then enduring monstrous commutes.
You have to see it to believe it. Chaparral-clad high-desert hillsides are paint-gunned with subdivisions, most of which look alien, more like they fell from space than growing organically from the existing city of Temecula. Either way, the new subdivisions are endless, especially on the north side of the city, all stretching out in a quilt of home non-biodiversity.
As I rubber-necked at 70 mi/h from freeway overpasses it struck me: These subdivisions are emptying out. They have to be. Foreclosures are forcing every adjustable-rate-mortgage developer-driven subdivision like this in California to empty out, from Stockton to Chula Vista. With that thought in the back of my mind, the typical mid-day emptiness of a modern suburb changed. These developments went from half-built and merely quiet, to progressively abandoned. And I began to feel like John Wesley Powell finding an ancient settlement of puzzling origin.
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Live in Del Mar now but used to be stationed on MCAS Miramar and could not believe how many people were so desperate just to be home owners that they would commute all the way from that depressing city.
What's so disturbing is that this scenario is being played out in many other states, most notably in Colorado. Vast abandoned communities with little hope of resuscitation. Once beautiful open land, now scarred with cheap and blightful housing, created by shamefully cheap credit....
The economy of Temecula will take a dive too. The whole area will be impacted.
It took the South Bronx decades to come back.
Was just in Tucson and toured Biosphere 2. It felt like an abandoned space ship. These new ghost burbs seem much the same.
Take a look at what Barry just posted on The Big Picture about youwalkaway.com. Notice the Carlsbad location. I can't wait to see the local ads here in SoCal.
Read Jared Diamond's "Collapse" for more on why the Anasazi and other similar societies bought the proverbial farm -- their decline is not really a mystery (too many people, not enough food), although opinions differ on the exact chain of events.
Diamond asserts that throughout history we look at the fall of civilizations as being caused by wars and invasions, when in fact the war or invasion was only the precipitating factor in the final collapse -- the final nail in the coffin, so to speak, but the most obvious one and therefore the one that gets written into the history books.
Much more common are situations when a civilization screws up its environment and/or is confronted with a climate change event which messes up its ability to survive. This has happened countless times in places like Easter Island and Greenland; "Collapse" devotes a chapter to each one of these civilizations. The Viking colonies of Greenland is a particularly interesting story because those people had written records as well as contact with their home country, so we know a lot about what they went through.
And of course all of these stories are cautionary tales for us today. In fact, Chapter 1 of the book covers modern-day Montana.
Really a dumb analogy.
California's population will grow by about 15 million over the next 30 years. And they are not going to build many more new homes in SD and OC, so where do you think these people are going to live?
This is just another bump in the CA housing market, this is not the end of civilization for those who don't live in major crime ridden and dirty cities.
And when the coast breaks off into the ocean, all of those people will need places to live! Instead of savings bonds for our kids and grandkids, we should invest in Temecula foreclosures - hey, someone could open up a fund for this very purpose, and they can tie it into leads generated by youwalkaway.com ...
Worth -- I like that logic. Buy Cali inland: It will soon be the cost.
Dr. Hyde -- I'm not suggesting that it's the end of civilization. Just pointing out there are unsettling things going on in places like Temecula, cities that many of us ordinarily drive through without so much as a second thought from a freeway overpass.
...leaving acres of prime wine country forever destroyed...