That is the funniest video I have seen on your blog-hahaha

I like how Barry Ritholtz smugly says he can't believe how many people (unlike him) were wrong about the economy and markets.

This is the same Barry Ritholtz that ranks 59th out of 60th in forecasting accuracy among pundits during the past 5 years!

"...In first place, with the lowest average absolute percentage error of 1.5% (based on three forecasts), is Charles Mayer. Bringing up the rear, with average absolute percentage errors over 20% (based on four and five forecasts, respectively) are Barry Ritholtz and Bernie Schaeffer..."

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/bwforecasters/default.asp

Steve D.:

Allow me to clarify and correct a number of errors in the NYT column:

1. If you read my actual post, what I criticize are the"otherwise intelligent people who, once again, claimed "its different this time."

Its not that they were wrong -- everyone who makes predictions will be wrong -- but rather, that they chose to disregard proven rules of economics. (the original post is here: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/01/so-much-for-the.html)

2. The NYT piece on Paul and I got a number of things wrong (and pointed to the wrong post) -- my correction is here: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/01/the-bulls-bears.html

3. Last year, I came in dead last in the WSJ and BW forecasts;

This year, I came in first.
(http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/01/wsj-2007-foreca.html)

4. Most people who do the annual forecasts just add 10% to where we are, guaranteeing you are in the middle of the pack. While that makes sure you never go too far afield -- at least by CXO's measure -- it turns forecasting into a pointless exercise.

5. We use forecasting not as a way to manage money, but as an exercise -- a war game of what ifs. That has served us (and our clients) well.

Example: In 2006, I stunk it up in terms of the final market numbers (last place). However, I did manage to identify a lot of issues (Housing, credit, home builders, etc.) that were very relevant. And, because we correctly identified energy, metals and agriculture and Asia as strong sectors in 04/05/06, and stayed away from Home builders and Finance in 06/07, our managed accounts significantly outperformed the markets.

Before you form a final judgment, please read the actual post the NYT piece was based on.