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December 23, 2007

China: Markets Brought to You By the Numbers "4", "7", and "8"

Benford's Law it isn't, but this is still a fascinating research finding from Chinese stock markets:

This paper builds on prior research by analysing the impact of cultural factors on both price clustering and price resistance in China''s stock markets. The results support the presence of cultural factors impacting on price clustering with the digit 8 showing a higher propensity for clustering and the digits 4 and 7 showing a lower propensity in the A-share market, where stock is denominated in renminbi and traded by mainland Chinese. These results are further supported by an analysis of the B-share market, where cultural factors have no (or less) impact on the price of Chinese stocks traded by foreign investors in US dollars (or in Hong Kong dollars). A range of measures for price resistance show the digits 0 and 5 to be significant resistance points in the A-share market. Although digit 8 cannot be considered as a resistance point, its resistance level is highest among the remaining numbers. In conclusion, cultural factors help to explain not only price clustering in the Chinese stock markets but price resistance levels as well, albeit at a weak level.

via SSRN

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