Updated — Crude Oil: Comparing Price Trends Across Ten Currencies

Here is what happens when you leave Paul alone on a plane with laptop, and historical currency and crude oil data: You get a giant longitudinal comparison of recent crude oil price trends across ten major currencies.

In essence, I normalize everything to four years ago, all the while converting to the U.S. dollar using the then exchange rate to the currency in question. The result: You see how current crude price increases are, in part, an artifact of the collapsing U.S. dollar.

Here is the four-year figure (click on it for a larger version):

oil-four-year

And here is the one-year trend broken out (click on it for a larger version):

oil-one-year

[Update] An earlier version of this post had a fairly nasty underlying spreadsheet error.

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Comments

  1. Ming says:

    I don’t understand how the HKD/USD line could be flat. The HKD is pretty much pegged to the USD.

  2. Patrick Kerr says:

    excellent! definitely time well spent! and if Pimco’s Gomez is right and the Chinese with their continuing high growth let the yuan appreciate could this mean crude will go higher? China is experienceing gasoline shortages and rationing right now, they’ve fastracked approval of new massive refineries and have allowed the “teapot refiners to start refining again to help allievate shortages—the goverment has ordered refiners to keep the market supplied with gasoline—I guess they need more Crude to do this—So will the US slowing down curtail demand of crude, well yes maybe but the subprime/potential recession will keep the fed cutting rates and keep the dollar weak–making crude more affordable to foreigners like the chinese- anyway crude looks interesting on pullbacks–the bigger the pullback the better it looks-right now-we’ve had a nice $3-4 dollar pullback over the last several days—pre-OPEC meeting on Dec. 5….OPEC is setting market up to be disappointed if they can’t increase verifiable production massively(regardless whether they say it or not it’s likely they can’t increase it much at all)—could see the market quickly retest $100 per barrel level or higher—–pk of OilGasFutures.Com—

  3. proales says:

    Every once in a while Wired Magazine will run a item called “InfoPorn” and this type of post reminds me a little of that.. good geeky/financial/info/fun. Good post.
    Whats the easiest way to pull in the data for something like this? Bloomberg Excel Plugin? There are probably lots of data sources out there, but have you found any really great convenient ones?