Peter Eavis at Fortune has a new piece up arguing that new math at Fannie Mae may be hiding sizable and steep credit losses. Read the whole thing, but here is the gist of Eavis’s argument:
Last week, as part of its earnings report, Fannie Mae revealed that the company had changed the way it calculates the credit loss ratio. Under the new method, Fannie Mae’s annualized credit loss ratio was just 4 basis points in the first nine months of the year.
At first glance, four basis points looks to be at the low-end of Fannie Mae’s full-year forecast. Problem is, because the company is using a new methodology, the previous estimate no longer makes sense to use.
So what would have happened if the company had compared apples to apples — and stuck with the old method of calculating its loss ratio?
Under the previous method, Fannie Mae would have been well outside of its range. The company would have reported an annualized loss ratio of 7.5 basis points in the first nine months of this year.